Eurasia Press & News
Azerbaijan’s approach mirrors broader trends in global energy diplomacy, akin to China’s engagement in Africa or Russia’s energy-based influence in Libya, Syria TV writes.
Buoyed by its victory in Nagorno-Karabakh and strengthened by Turkish support, Azerbaijan is quietly expanding its regional footprint—including into Syria. High-level visits, such as Deputy Prime Minister Shahbazov’s May 2024 trip to Damascus, reflect Baku’s growing interest in Syria’s energy sector, particularly the oil and gas infrastructure in the northeast. The state oil company SOCAR is exploring reconstruction opportunities, leveraging its experience with post-conflict investments in countries like Iraq and Libya.
Simultaneously, Azerbaijan is positioning itself as a behind-the-scenes mediator between Turkey and Israel, having hosted de-escalation talks in April 2024 focused on tensions related to Syria. This dual strategy—energy investor and diplomatic broker—underscores Baku’s ambition to stake a unique claim in the region’s fragmented geopolitical landscape.
The Turkey–Israel–Azerbaijan Triangle
Azerbaijan’s moves are closely aligned with its deepening strategic ties to both Turkey and Israel, reinforced through joint energy infrastructure such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey offers geopolitical backing, while Israel contributes security and technological expertise, particularly in countering Iranian influence in the region. Analysts suggest that Baku’s presence in Syria could serve as a stabilising intermediary, helping Ankara and Tel Aviv navigate their overlapping yet occasionally conflicting interests—especially in contested zones such as Palmyra, near areas sensitive to Israeli security.
Obstacles and Limitations
Despite its ambitions, Azerbaijan faces significant constraints:
Sanctions: U.S. and EU restrictions on the Syrian regime complicate any formal investment in state-controlled sectors.
Instability: Syria’s economic collapse, currency devaluation, and persistent insecurity deter large-scale or long-term projects.
Technical limitations: Azerbaijani firms lack the specialised expertise needed for tasks like decontaminating oilfields from carcinogenic pollutants—areas currently dominated by Western companies with advanced environmental remediation capabilities.Energy Leverage in a Reshaped Region
Azerbaijan’s approach mirrors broader trends in global energy diplomacy, akin to China’s engagement in Africa or Russia’s energy-based influence in Libya. While Syria’s proven gas reserves are limited, Baku’s true interest may lie in positioning itself as a transit hub and logistical partner, rather than a direct resource extractor—thereby reinforcing its broader strategy as a regional energy corridor.
Turkey’s Quiet Green Light
Turkey appears to endorse Azerbaijan’s engagement cautiously. While Baku asserts diplomatic independence, its actions remain closely coordinated with Ankara’s regional calculus. Azerbaijan’s involvement is unlikely to conflict with Turkish interests, and may in fact serve as a useful proxy for Turkish outreach in sensitive zones.
Incremental Influence in a Volatile Landscape
Azerbaijan is testing the waters in Syria through a blend of energy diplomacy and discreet mediation. Its success will depend on how well it navigates sanctions, instability, and the complex web of rivalries involving Turkey, Israel, and Iran. Though modest for now, Baku’s approach reflects a calculated attempt to reshape regional dynamics—one pipeline, one meeting at a time.
