Eurasia Press & News
The citizens of the north of Kosovo have been living under, until now, probably the most intense danger to their existence and bare life, depending on the decisions and moves of the high political elites from Serbia and Kosovo.
Ahead of the meeting of the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Aljbin Kurti, in Brussels, and the possibility that both sides will accept the European peace solution, the question arises as to how Russia will react to reaching an agreement with the aim of calming tensions.
- Didn’t Russian officials constantly repeat that everything that suits Serbia is acceptable to them? – asked Suzana Grubješić, vice president of the Center for Foreign Policy, in a statement for Danas.
It is widely speculated that Vučić has already accepted the Franco-German proposal, and Kurti has publicly and concretely confirmed his agreement on several occasions.
On the other hand, the protests and rebellion of right-wing and nationalist organizations in Serbia, ahead of the meeting of the two leaders in Brussels, are brewing, and there have long been speculations that Vladimir Putin’s regime is planning to cause riots in Serbia and in the north of Kosovo, if an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo is reached. it really comes.
Russian interest is not Serbian
- The European plan does not mention either mutual recognition or Kosovo’s membership in the UN, although it does mention joining international organizations. I don’t see how Russia could obstruct the implementation of that plan at this stage, except for the well-known fact that by solving the Kosovo issue, it loses one of the most important levers for influence in Serbia – Suzana Grubješić tells Danas.
The second lever of influence – energy dependence – he notes further, is solved by building a gas interconnector with Bulgaria, and further diversification of energy supply is planned.
- After all, haven’t Russian officials constantly repeated that everything that suits Serbia is acceptable to them? The fact that Russia has an interest in keeping the Kosovo issue frozen and unresolved does not mean that it is in the interest of Serbia, which has to put its own future first – concludes our interlocutor.
The signing of the European peace settlement in March, solemnly, with the presence of Macron, Scholz and Blinken
Fatmir Seholi, director of the non-governmental organization “Institute for the Affirmation of Inter-Ethnic Relations”, assesses for Danas that the President of Serbia has given positive signals that he will accept the Franco-German document, but, he adds, he also said that there can be no progress without initiating the formation of the ZSO.
- This is why I believe that Vučić will accept the document, but if the plan of action is not to Serbia’s “taste”, then it remains to be seen how the process will go – says Šeholi.
According to him, if the document is signed, it will still be a formal ceremony that would be held by mid-March in Paris, in the presence of French President Macron, German Chancellor Scholz and most likely US Secretary of State Blinken.
- If Vučić signs, Russia will most likely react harshly and try to overthrow Vučić within Serbia through extreme right-wing movements and funding of criminal groups – he believes.
As he concludes, Russia has begun to activate its “pawns” in Serbia, but if Vučić signs the European document, they would activate and commit a greater degree of criminal acts.
Russia is weaker than the West in Serbia, because it relied on Vučić
According to Dragomir Anđelković, a political analyst, although it is speculated that Vučić could sign an agreement on the normalization of relations with Pristina on Monday in Brussels, this does not seem realistic.
- Such a thing is against the political logic by which it is guided. He does everything in multiple steps, shifting responsibility and risk to others. Unless he is personally blackmailed by Washington in some radical way, he will not deviate from it. He will buy time for what is the grossest violation of the Constitution of Serbia and the trampling of vital national interests, as long as he can – says our interlocutor.
Hence, he notes, if he does sign something, it will first of all be a statement of principle that he will strive to reach a compromise with the mediation of the leading Western countries.
- But if, hypothetically, taking the negative consequences upon himself, he signed an agreement that has been talked about for months, the reaction would be internal rather than external. A significant part of Serbian citizens would reject it. But Russia, which is usually mentioned as an external factor that is not up to the task of accepting the Washington-Berlin-Paris plan, would hardly have the possibility to do something in a way that is beneficial for itself – brother-in-law Anđelković.
As he says, until now Moscow primarily relied on the Vučić regime, and did not adequately develop the levers of soft power in Serbia.
Russian boomerang
- Russia does not have powerful non-governmental organizations, media or funds similar to Western ones. As for the classical mechanisms of power – with my personal belief that Russia would not resort to them in relation to Serbia and that it has them – it is unlikely that it has them at all in a relevant form in our country, so that it could come to grips with the local establishment that has an autocratic style of government and, accordingly, control over power structures – Anđelković explains.
And any excess without the potential to really give results, he adds, would just be a boomerang that hits whoever is trying to do something without cover.
- Russian decision-makers are certainly well aware of this, and they would not rush into something that the West would use in propaganda and other ways against Moscow – concludes the interlocutor of Danas.
Russia is preventing reconciliation between the peoples of the Balkans
Lawyer Čedomir Stojković tells Danas that the interest of the Russian Federation is the creation and maintenance of conflicts in the Balkans, and especially the prevention of any kind of reconciliation between nations.
- That is why its interest is to prevent the conclusion of an agreement with Kosovo, because with that Russia loses one of the hybrid platforms with which it manipulates Serbia and with which it not only influences our political processes, but also decisively manages politics in Serbia. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that Russia’s alleged support for Kosovo stands out as a false, but still stated, reason for not introducing Serbia’s sanctions against Russia. Although this “support” is only bureaucratic and refers to the veto in the Security Council, and although it means absolutely nothing neither on the ground nor in Serbia’s relations with Kosovo because it does not change people’s lives for the better, this “veto” is politically abused in a way to present Russia as some kind of protector of “Serbian Kosovo” – says our interlocutor.
Thus, he says, while Russia, for example, on the Church of St. Sava, the monument to Stefan Nemanja, appreciates energy sources, and through political influence directly hostilely hijacks and falsifies our historical and cultural heritage, it hides its hostile behavior with its “veto for Kosovo”.
Serbia’s interest is Kosovo’s entry into the UN
- Everything that Russia steals and abducts from us and everything that it imposes on us is covered up, because it is supposedly “less important than Kosovo”. That is why with the agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, Russia loses that influence on Serbia and that is the first reason why Russia does not want it. Be sure that behind the policy “we will not allow Kosovo to be in the United Nations” is the interest of Putin directly, and not the interest of Serbia – says the interlocutor of Danas.
According to him, because with Kosovo’s entry into the UN, Russia loses all importance in Serbia’s foreign policy.
- Rationality says that our interest is Kosovo’s entry into the UN because we can only influence events in Kosovo by acting through international institutions of which Kosovo is a member, and for example seek the protection of our monasteries, human and minority rights, and historical and cultural heritage. . Without that, we have no influence on the events there – believes Čedomir Stojković.
As he adds, we can expect that Russia will act strongly if an agreement is reached, although it is already acting and is currently exerting pressure on the Government of Serbia and the President of Serbia, and intelligence manipulation in order not to accept the agreement, especially in the part that would led to the loss of Russia’s influence on Serbia, and that is Kosovo’s entry into international organizations, which leaves Russia completely irrelevant here.
Next are the protests of Dveri, Zavetnik, DSS, POKS…
- If an agreement is reached, Russia will first activate protests through its political parties that it formed, namely Dveri, Zavetnici, New DSS, POKS. Then he will try to carry out political destabilization through SPS, which for decades has been directly financed by Russian energy companies and the corruption associated with it. On the media that has a decisive or sufficient influence (Happy TV, B92, Prva, Novosti, Politika, Pink and RTS, but also many others). Through its agents of influence in the public sphere, Russia will try to influence the people to reject the agreement, but since this will not be possible due to various circumstances, Russia will continue to sow hatred in the people towards the West on the occasion of that agreement – according to our interlocutor.
A large number of Russian agents among the Serbs in the north of Kosovo
In the north of Kosovo, he notes, where Russia has a large number of agents among the Serbs, it will try to cause security destabilization, and through its influence on the Security Information Agency through the cadres structured by Vulin and his predecessor, Russia will try to provoke the falsely patriotic part intelligence services to be actively involved in rejecting the plan, imposing a general brainwash pattern of thinking “that Kosovo must be protected” without giving concrete answers: how, why and in general with regard to the situation why, and considering the prospect of joining the European Union where the border between one There is no Spain, France, Germany and Poland at all, then from what?
- That’s why, in the case of acceptance of the plan, Serbia will have its own internal test on the issue of Kosovo, which will show whether the malignancy that Vladimir Putin sowed here has metastasized so much that we can no longer see or realize our own interests at all, what if so then, due to that malignancy, we will completely lose the country over time in the same way that a human life is lost in the case of cancer, or else, there is still hope and our social and state fabric can heal and defeat this malignancy – concludes Čedomir Stojković.
