Stalled Syria-SDF Deal Risks Sparking Wider Conflict

Clashes have erupted between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria. Since August 2, the SDF has reported five clashes, leaving tens wounded. The most recent, on August 12 in Dayr Haffer, resulted in the death of one Syrian soldier.

These clashes come as a March 10 agreement, signed by interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, to integrate the areas held by the SDF into the Syrian state remains unimplemented. The Syrian government recently canceled talks with the SDF scheduled to take place in Paris.

Turkish Fears Over the SDF

Turkey, one of Sharaa’s primary backers, has pressured Damascus not to accede to some Kurdish demands, particularly integrating the SDF into the Syrian military as a unified military bloc rather than as individuals. Ankara has also blamed the SDF for stalling in the negotiations, accusing it of “not acting in accordance with the [March 10] agreement.”

Fearing a Kurdish autonomous region on its border, Turkey has clashed with the SDF several times since 2015. Relatedly, Ankara has fought against Kurds looking for autonomy in — or independence from — the central government in Turkey for decades. It has threatened further military action in Syria if the current deal collapses. Sharaa has previously claimed that “it [Turkey] was prepared to launch a full-fledged war there [northeast Syria], but we [the Syrian government] asked them to wait in order to give space for negotiations.” Now, with talks stalled, the risk of a broader conflict is increasing.

The Stalled March Agreement Has Fueled Escalation

The March agreement, brokered with U.S. involvement, was seen as a breakthrough: a pathway toward unifying Syria under a central government and creating a national army. It also marked the first substantive cooperation between Damascus and the SDF.

The deal’s implementation has stalled, however. Sharaa’s consolidation of power, including an interim constitution that ignored some provisions agreed upon with the SDF, has eroded the group’s trust in Sharaa.

The Kurds have proposed building “a decentralized democratic Syria that embraces everyone,” enshrined in a constitution that gives cultural and linguistic rights to all components of Syrian society. This approach would preserve Kurdish local autonomy in northeastern Syria and allow them to retain control over local services. Damascus has labeled that approach as separatist.

Tensions Between the SDF and Arab Tribes

Tensions have also escalated between the SDF and Arab tribes in northeastern Syria. Following a conference hosted by the Democratic Autonomous Authority in North and East Syria (DAANES) which called for a decentralized Syria, the Arab tribes of the region, which account for the majority of northeastern Syria’s population, issued a statement condemning all participants and accusing DAANES of “intimidation against the Syrian state and undermining the unity of its land and people.”

Additionally, several Arab tribes in the region have called for a general military mobilization against the SDF. Sheikh Faraj al-Salamah, one of the area’s tribal leaders, stated that “coordination is underway with all the tribes that have called for mobilization, and everyone is waiting for the right moment to begin movement.” Their goal, in his words, is to “liberate the Syrian Jazira,” referring to the geographical area in northeast Syria.

The U.S. Should Pressure Both Sides To Honor the Integration Agreement

If the March agreement collapses, not only would Damascus and the Kurds return to open hostility, but U.S. gains against ISIS could unravel. The SDF still holds thousands of Islamic State fighters in prisons and camps, and any chaos could trigger mass escapes and a resurgence of violence.

Washington should remain fully engaged in preventing the collapse of the March agreement, which is the best hope of avoiding renewed war. Accordingly, Washington should take a balanced approach that pressures Damascus to recognize Kurdish concerns over the centralization of power under Sharaa while ensuring that the SDF does not pursue a separatist agenda.

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