Eurasia Press & News
Egypt is bolstering its military presence in the Sinai Peninsula as Israel pushes ahead with a new military operation to conquer Gaza City, which Cairo fears will displace even more Palestinians in the devastated and immiserated coastal enclave.
Egypt has reportedly deployed up to 40,000 troops in the northern Sinai region, along with armour and air defences near Gaza’s southern border.
These moves come as Cairo worries that Israel’s planned military operation against Gaza City will displace approximately one million Palestinians – half of Gaza’s population – into the southern part of the strip, potentially increasing the prospect of refugees pouring into Sinai.
‘Red line’
“Egypt has reiterated throughout the course of the Hamas-Israel War that a sudden influx of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula is a ‘red line’ for the Egyptian government,” Kristin Ronzi, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told The New Arab.
“Ahead of previous Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip, such as the Israeli operations in Rafah in May 2024, Egypt boosted border security and created a fenced buffer zone in preparation for a potential sudden inflow of Palestinians from Gaza,” Ronzi said.
“The expanded Israeli military operations to take over Gaza City have reignited these concerns in Cairo, especially because some projections have suggested that up to one million Palestinians could be displaced.”
Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, also noted that Egypt’s leadership is “deeply concerned” that Israel’s actions in Gaza could cause large numbers of Palestinians to flee into Sinai.
“Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been under enormous quiet pressure from the Israelis, and often the Americans, to solve Israel’s humanitarian dilemma in Gaza by accepting millions of Palestinians into Egypt,” Heras told TNA.
“The scenario that Gaza is depopulated and the Gazans forced into Egypt would result in intense pressure on the Egyptian government by its own people, very likely destabilising Egypt.”
RANE’s Ronzi pointed out that the latest Israeli military evacuation orders within the strip will likely push Palestinians toward the central and southern parts of the strip.
That would, in turn, most likely increase the number of Palestinians displaced near the Rafah crossing and the possibility that some may attempt to cross into Sinai.
“Such a case would risk violent clashes between Egyptian security forces and Palestinians trying to cross into Egypt, which would trigger domestic backlash among Egypt’s pro-Palestinian population,” Ronzi said.
“But Egypt is not in a position to support large numbers of Palestinians trying to enter Gaza since this would appear to be a coordinated effort with Israel to depopulate the Gaza Strip, and this would strain Egyptian resources amid Egypt’s ongoing economic woes.”
Coordination
It’s unlikely that Egypt conducted its latest Sinai buildup without coordinating with Israel, as stipulated by their 1979 peace treaty, which limits the number of troops Cairo can deploy in certain parts of the peninsula.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, noted that Egyptian deployments in Sinai that exceed the limits of that agreement are certainly not without precedent.
“Those limits have been loosely enforced for a while, and especially over the last decade – as Egypt confronted the Islamic State in the Sinai – Israel has been happy to turn a blind eye,” Orton told TNA.
“That being said, the political context is clearly different with this latest buildup, which is the main thing.”
Egypt is only officially authorised to deploy police in Zone C of Sinai, which borders Gaza. In the central Zone B, it can only deploy 4,000 soldiers. Thus, deployment of 40,000 troops and heavy weapons in Zone C vastly exceeds the original agreement’s limitations.
“Whether this Egyptian buildup of troops in the Sinai is actually larger than previous surges is unclear,” Orton said. “It is shrouded in so much propaganda – some deliberate from Cairo, some clearly just over-excited supporters and opponents of the Sisi regime.”
These supporters, he added, either think this is a prelude to an Egyptian attack on Israel. On the other hand, mainly Russian and Iranian outlets allege the complete opposite, that Egypt is preparing to help Israel facilitate its upcoming offensive.
RANE’s Ronzi also believes the buildup “indicates coordination” between Egypt and Israel, given the substantial number of troops involved.
“Previous exceptions to the deployment cap have been made, but in the absence of coordination, a sudden troop building would likely raise concern in Israel of a potential Egyptian military threat,” she said.
“The Israel-Egyptian border has previously had some isolated clashes between soldiers, which have been de-escalated by both governments, and while the Hamas-Israel War has elevated those tensions, risks of more extensive clashes between the militaries remain low.”
Other areas of continued cooperation suggest this Egyptian buildup isn’t a sign of deteriorating ties with Israel.
“Even while tensions remain elevated, Egypt and Israel have still demonstrated recent instances of bilateral cooperation, such as the expanded gas deal from the Leviathan gas field, which will increase Egypt’s reliance on Israel for energy security,” Ronzi said.
“Additionally, there is ongoing dialogue between the two countries regarding hostage negotiations.”
New Lines Institute’s Heras believes that it’s a certainty that the Egyptian military in Sinai is “under strict orders” to prevent any potential mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt. At the same time, he doesn’t see any imminent rupture in relations nor a threat to their long-established peace deal.
“Egypt and Israel retain robust military-to-military communication, and it is unlikely that the el-Sisi government would withdraw from the peace treaty with Israel because the Egyptian military benefits a lot from the massive US aid that it receives because of that treaty,” Heras said.
“Much more likely is that the Egyptians would pressure the Trump administration to apply restraint on the Israelis to limit military activities in Gaza.”
Nevertheless, the latest Egyptian military moves in the Sinai have raised some concerns in Israel.
“For the Israelis, this Egyptian buildup has been a worry for some time, especially over the last month or so,” Orton said.
“Not so much that Egypt would do anything substantive against them, but as a further sign of deteriorating relations, which have not been good under Sisi for years, and because it perhaps signals Sisi is going to create some kind of political spectacle,” he added.
“The Egyptian regime wants to be seen at home and in the Arab World as making a move to prevent the Palestinian Arabs being displaced from Gaza into the Sinai – and the Egyptians genuinely do not want them.”
