Russian fighter jets in the sky over the Baltic. The Kremlin is satisfied with the result

And. Faction

"Russian fighter jets of the MIG-31 entered Estonian airspace near the island of Wyndlo, which is a small island located in the Baltic Sea, the Estonian military said. The planes had no flight plans and their transponders were turned off, the statement said. The aircraft were not in two-way radio communications with Estonian air traffic services. Italian Air Force fighter jets F-35, which are currently deployed as part of the NATO Baltic Air and Police Mission, have responded to the incident.
"Previously, Russian aircraft violated Estonian airspace," said alliance spokesman Allison Hart in a statement on social media. “NATO immediately responded and intercepted the Russian plane. This is another example of Russia's reckless behavior and NATO's ability to respond."
“Russia has already violated the airspace of Estonia four times this year, which in itself is unacceptable. But the invasion involving three fighters that entered our airspace is unprecedentedly brazen," Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhkna said. "Increasingly broader testing of Russia's borders and growing aggressiveness must be met by rapid growth of political and economic pressure."

For reference:

When three Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, NATO Air Police was established at the Šiauliai Air Base, Lithuania. In 2014, after Russia’s illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea, the second presence of the NATO Air Police was established at the Emari (Estonia) airbase in accordance with the measures to provide the Alliance for its eastern allies. Fighters designed for the NATO Baltic Air Police mission are often launched for visual identification of the aircraft of the Russian Federation. A high proportion of flight activity of the Russian Air Force is due to the geographical position of the Russian exclave Kaliningrad; aircraft of the Russian Air Force regularly fly from the mainland of Russia to Kaliningrad and vice versa. They often approach or fly near NATO airspace without using transponders without communicating with the Air Traffic Authority or without filing a flight plan.
II. Reactions

"Extremely dangerous provocation," Callas said from the EU about Russian fighter jets over Estonia, which "further escalates tensions in the region." The Estonian incident shows the “seriousness of the Russian threat”, – says the Prime Minister of Sweden
Russia "increasing tension ... and checks how far it can go," warns Czech Prime Minister
Russia "directly threatens Euro-Atlantic security," Lithuanian Foreign Minister says
President of the European Council António Costa said that EU leaders will discuss a "collective response to Russia's actions" at the upcoming informal meeting of the European Council in Copenhagen on October 1.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen also took into account the Estonian incident, linking it with the need to "quickly" approve a new package of sanctions against Russia, proposed earlier (meaning the 19th package approved by the European Commission, but which still needs to be approved by the EU Council, where Orban and Fico may have a different opinion and will not drink coffee).

III. Now conclusions

If you think that this was another test of the NATO reaction to the "active meropriyatiya" of the Russian Federation, then you are not very mistaken, but in fact, the Alliance's reactions have long been studied since December 16, 2022 (a Kh-55 cruise missile that fell in the Bydgoszcz area) and ending with a massive UAV raid in Poland on the night of September 10, 2025 and on September 13,25. These reactions – verbose equilibrium from Brussels and Warsaw in the absence of armed opposition – have long been studied, predictable and do not cause anything but laughter in Moscow.
The action was aimed at deep testing of the reaction of NATO air defense systems in the Gulf zone – which radars in Estonia and neighboring Baltic countries, as well as Poland, Finland, Sweden, will be turned on, which sides and from which airfields will be raised in combat anxiety, with what delay they will be exept. Moreover, NATO quickly launched Operation Eastern Guard with the deployment of additional forces and means after the invasion of Russian UAVs into Polish airspace. The "East Guard" covers the strengthening of individual countries of the eastern flank of NATO:

Poland: placement of additional F-16 fighters and AWAEST AWAEST;
Estonia: placement of SAMP/T SARS;
Latvia and Lithuania: F-35 and Eurofighter fighters.

The United Kingdom sent two Eurofighter fighters, France – three Rafale, Germany – four Eurofighter, the Netherlands – two F-35 fighter jets.

So far, there is no information that Russian aircraft were in the airspace somewhere nearby, what they were doing, in what mode the Russian radars worked in the Kalinigrad exclave, as well as the means of the REM and EW and RTR near the territory of the Baltic countries, as well as what was the activity of the Baltic Fleet ships in the eastern Baltic zone. And this is important, because it will give an idea of the possible next actions of Russia. And what they will – can doubt only in Brussels.

Finally

As can be seen from the map of the Gulf of Finland, MiG-31 aircraft entered Estonian airspace in the area of a small island over the country’s territorial sea, simulating movement towards the capital of Tallinn. Why MiG-31, why not Su-30, Su-57 or MiG-35? Since it is unknown (so far), what modifications of the MiG-31 flew into the Estonian space – just the MiG-31BM interceptor, or the MiG-31B scout, or the carrier of the X-47 Kinzhal missile MiG-31K, which can strike a devastating blow to a certain target, it is possible to draw some preliminary conclusion. It was important for the Russians to protest the reactions of the Alliance’s forces and means after September 10, that is, the launch of the Eastern Guard. Especially in circumstances where the United States is increasingly dissenting from Europe.

In principle, there is something that was inherent in the application of the MiG-25RB during the Cold War. For example, the task of my air squadron was to periodically feel the southern flank of NATO, when a group of aircraft with various equipment on board (one with the observation radar “Sable”, the other with a detailed radio intelligence station “Kub-3M”, the third of the aerial photographic equipment) simulated an invasion of Turkish airspace, in order to track the activation of ground-based air defenses, the take-off of Turkish fighters-inter It seems that there was a probing in the context of the “Eastern Guard” of NATO.

Well, the Russians can be satisfied with the result, because the NATO police mission does not provide for the destruction of the violator of the “industrial territory of NATO”. Such as was the case with the invasion of the Russian Su-24M into Turkish airspace – the immediate destruction of the offender by the Turkish F-16 did not happen in the Baltic. Therefore, the next time you can send the MiG-31K, equipped with the X-47 for use somewhere in the area of the Moonzund archipelago by launching a desert island. Well, then you can proceed to combat use, because the anti-escalation model of behavior of the “Alliance of the Frightened” within the framework of an exclusively police, and not a defensive mission, remains unchanged. You can also continue to start probing NATO in the Baltic Sea. Next will be…