Eurasia Press & News
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Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) baselessly claimed on September 30 that Ukraine is preparing to conduct a false flag attack against critical Polish infrastructure in order to implicate Russia and Belarus.[1] The SVR claimed that Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Polish intelligence will deploy a sabotage and reconnaissance group comprised of Russian and Belarusian nationals from the pro-Ukrainian Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) and Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment to Poland. The SVR claimed that the troops will pose as Russian and Belarusian Spetsnaz personnel at a press conference after Polish security forces capture them and that the pro-Ukrainian troops will blame Russia and Belarus for the incident. The SVR claimed that Ukraine may simultaneously conduct an “attack” on critical infrastructure in Poland in order to “heighten public outcry.” The SVR claimed that Ukraine is trying to take advantage of the recent drone incursions into NATO airspace to inflame anti-Russian sentiment in Poland, accelerate escalation in the war, and incite European countries to intervene in the war on behalf of Ukraine. The Kremlin may have ordered the SVR to release this statement in order to evade responsibility for a possible future Russian and Belarusian sabotage operation against Poland.
The Kremlin often uses the SVR to spread unfounded allegations of imminent attacks as part of disinformation campaigns designed to weaken support for Ukraine and sow doubt about the nature of Russia’s own provocations against NATO member states.[2] The Kremlin is likely setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for future attacks that Russia itself may conduct against Poland or other NATO states. Russia similarly accused Ukraine on September 26 of conducting the recent drone incursions into Polish and Romanian airspace to instigate a NATO-Russia war, despite the fact that Polish and Romanian officials attributed the incursions to Russia.[3]
Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections. The Kremlin-linked Patriotic bloc claimed on September 30 that Moldovan authorities committed “egregious” election violations and that the bloc will “seek justice through street protests, in the courts, and, if necessary, in the Constitutional Court.”[4] Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians stated on September 29 that they would appeal the election results on the pretext of electoral violations.[5] High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to buttress Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians’ claims of electoral fraud and violations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on September 30 that the elections were “fraudulent” and that Moldovan authorities “blatantly manipulated” the votes.[6] Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko claimed on September 29 that Moldovan President Maia Sandu brought the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which won a parliamentary majority in the elections, to victory “on bayonets” and that the elections were illegitimate.[7] Matvienko claimed that Moldovan citizens will not recognize the election. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on September 29 that the election was “unprecedentedly dirty” and that Moldovan authorities used extra-legal mechanisms, blackmail, and threats.[8]
Moldovan law stipulates that the Central Election Commission (CEC) must create a report on the parliamentary election results within five days of the elections and then submit the report to the Constitutional Court within one day — by October 4.[9] The Constitutional Court must then confirm or invalidate the legality of the elections within 10 days of receiving the CEC report (no later than October 14). Electoral contestants can request that authorities recount the votes up until the court confirms the results. The Constitutional Court can declare the elections invalid if it finds violations of the electoral code during the electoral process or vote counting that influenced the results. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin has been setting conditions to generate (possibly violent) protests to remove Sandu from power after the elections and may launch protests to contest the election results.[10] The Kremlin may still plan to ignite violent protests even should the Constitutional Court validate the results in October 2025, possibly in order to generate a Kremlin-initiated mirror-image of the spontaneous pro-European 2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that drove pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from office.[11] The Kremlin has set information conditions to ignite protests in Moldova as late as the end of November 2025.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on September 30 that the EU will commit two billion euros (roughly $2.3 billion) to Ukraine for drone production.[12] Von der Leyen stated that this funding will allow Ukraine to scale up and use its full drone production capacity and also allow the EU to benefit from such technology. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 30 that the US is currently discussing the fifth and sixth weapons packages to Ukraine through NATO’s Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine.[13] Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s goal is to receive one billion dollars’ worth of weapons per month through PURL. NATO launched the PURL initiative in July 2025, and NATO countries, including the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Canada, have already contributed more than two billion dollars to Ukraine through the program.[14]
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics. Norwegian public broadcaster NRK and Norwegian outlet VG reported on September 29 that employees at the Sleipner oil drilling, production, and accommodation platform reported sightings of an unspecified drone near the platform in the North Sea off the western coast of Norway.[15] Norwegian Police official Roger Litlatun stated that Norwegian authorities are investigating the incident. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on September 30 that a group of Ukrainian specialists traveled to Denmark to train Danish troops in counter-drone tactics as part of the “Wings of Defense” joint exercise following similar drone incidents around Europe in recent weeks.[16]
Key Takeaways
Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine.
Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Borova, Lyman, Siversk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical effort area.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Ukrainian Operations in The Russian Federation
Ukrainian intelligence agents recently assassinated a Rosgvardia lieutenant colonel who commanded the elite Avangard Unit in Russia. The Ukrainian Main Military Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reported on September 30 that GUR agents, supported by the Caucasus Liberation Movement, assassinated three Russian servicemembers near Tambukan, Stavropol Krai, on September 27.[17] The GUR reported that the mission killed a Rosgvardia lieutenant colonel of an Avangard Spetsnaz Detachment, his assistant, and his driver.
Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis
Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on September 30 but did not make confirmed advances.
Russian forces attacked in unspecified areas of Sumy and Kursk oblasts, including northeast of Sumy City near Yunakivka on September 29 and 30.[18] A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that elements of the Russian 234th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (76th VDV Division) unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions east of Novyi Put (northwest of Sumy City).[19] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kostyantynivka, Kindrativka, and Oleksiivka (all north of Sumy City).[20]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have resorted to positional warfare since seizing Yunakivka and are no longer conducting assaults.[21] The milblogger claimed that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are struggling to advance in the Sumy direction due to a lack of vegetation that both sides previously relied on to provide cover and concealment from drones. A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that the Russian military command is transferring an excess of Russian reinforcements to Oleksiivka and that the surplus of Russian personnel is making Russian defenses less effective.[22]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 2nd Battalion of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in the southern part of Oleksiivka.[23] Elements of the 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and drone operators of the 83rd Separate VDV Brigade are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[24] Drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Sumy direction and in Khorobychi, Chernihiv Oblast.[25] Drone operators of the 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Kursk border areas.[26]
Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1
Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on September 30 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Vovchansk and west of Synelnykove (both northeast of Kharkiv City).[27]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Synelnykove on September 29 and 30.[28]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Salyut Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv direction.[29]
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on September 30.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced near Khatnie and Ambarne and northwest of Odradne (all northeast of Velykyi Burluk).[30]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2
Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on September 30 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced to Studentska Street in southern Kupyansk and Pryvokzalna Street in central Kupyansk and marginally retreated east of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[31]
Russian forces continued assaults near and in Kupyansk itself, northeast of Kupyansk near Kamyanka, north of Kupyansk near Radkivka, southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, and south of Kupyansk near the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi Railway Station in southern Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on September 29 and 30.[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked in Kupyansk.[33]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 68th Motorized Rifle Division (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions with Groza Leska fiber optic drones near Kupyansk.[34]
Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently retook Druzhelyubivka (southeast of Borova).[35]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 29 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the southeastern outskirts of Hrekivka (southeast of Borova).[36]
Russian forces continued assaults southeast of Borova near Hrekivka and Olhivka on September 29 and 30.[37]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly operating in the Borova direction.[38]
Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently retook positions east of Karpivka (northwest of Lyman).[39]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 30 indicates that elements of the Russian 67th Motorized Rifle Division (25th CAA, reportedly under the administrative control of the Moscow Military District [MMD]) recently seized positions in western Zarichne (northeast of Lyman).[40]
Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers reiterated claims on September 29 that Russian forces recently retook all of Zarichne.[41] The Russian MoD and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov credited elements of the Russian 37th Assault Detachment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division with seizing the settlement.[42]
Russian forces continued assaults north of Lyman near Novomykhailivka and Stavky; northwest of Lyman near Karpivka, Serednie, Shandryholove, and Novoselivka and toward Drobysheve; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and Torske; and southeast of Lyman near Yampil and in the Serebryanske forest area on September 29 and 30.[43] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking south of Zarichne.[44]
The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated on September 30 that Russian forces are using Lancet and Molniya loitering munitions to support Russian offensive operations in the area.[45] The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are using Molniya loitering munitions as “motherships” to transport first-person view (FPV) drones into Ukrainian near rear areas.
Order of Battle: Belousov and other Russian sources credited elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) with recently seizing Shandryholove.[46]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3
Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on September 30 indicates that Russian forces advanced northeast of Dronivka (north of Siversk).[47]
Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on September 29 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian forces in southern Zvanivka, disproving recent Russian claims that Russian forces advanced in this area.[48]
Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on September 30 that elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) seized “Maly Siversk” (a Soviet-era settlement northeast of Dronivka).[49] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Vyimka (southeast of Siversk) and in the southern outskirts of Zvanivka (south of Siversk).[50]
Russian forces attacked northwest of Siversk near Dronivka, northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka, east of Siversk near Novoselivka, and southwest of Siversk near Fedorivka on September 30.[51]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 88th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd CAA, formerly 2nd LNR AC, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Zvanivka.[52]
Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage on September 29 indicates that Russian forces advanced to the bank of a water feature east of Sofiivka (southwest of Druzhkivka).[53]
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself; northeast of Kostyantynivka near Zaliznyanske and Minkivka; east of Kostyantynivka near Predtechyne; south of Kostyantynivka near Shcherbynivka, Katerynivka, and Pleshchiivka and toward Ivanopillya; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Toretsk, Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Dyliivka and toward Stepanivka; southwest of Kostyantynivka near Yablunivka; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar and Poltavka; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Volodymyrivka and Sofiivka on September 29 and 30.[54] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kleban-Byk (south of Kostyantynivka).[55]
Order of Battle: Artillery elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Chasiv Yar (northeast of Kostyantynivka).[56] Drone operators of a reconnaissance and strike battalion of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Oleksiivo-Druzhkivka (southeast of Druzhkivka).[57] Elements of the Sever-V Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating in the Chasiv Yar (Kostyantynivka) direction.[58]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on September 30 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Dorozhnie (southeast of Dobropillya).[59]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Zapovidne (southeast of Dobropillya) is a contested “gray zone.”[60]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Dobropillya near Kucheriv Yar and southeast of Dobropillya near Zapovidne, Ivanivka, and Shakhove and toward Bilytske on September 29 and 30.[61] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Zapovidne, Dorozhnie, and Nove Shakhove and toward Novotoretske (both southeast of Dobropillya).[62]
Ukrainian forces recently maintained positions or advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on September 30 indicates that Russian claims that Russian forces seized positions in northern Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk) are false and that Ukrainian forces maintain positions or advanced in the area.[63]
Russian forces attacked near Pokrovsk itself; northwest of Pokrovsk toward Hryshyne; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Krasnyi Lyman and Novoekonomichne; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad, Myrolyubivka, and Promin and toward Kozatske and Balahan; southeast of Pokrovsk near Novopavlivka and Lysivka; southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, and Zvirove; and west of Pokrovsk toward Serhiivka on September 29 and 30.[64]
The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces continue to attack in small groups of one to two infantrymen, supported by drone cover, who probe and attempt to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses to create chaos.[65] The commander reported that Russian forces employ anti-thermal imaging cloaks to avoid detection by Ukrainian drones, move to new positions at night or dusk, and attack during the day. The commander reported that Russian forces use Molniya loitering munitions as motherships for first-person view (FPV) drones to increase their range over 20 to 25 kilometers and have intensified use of artillery and mortar strikes, including MLRS, guided bombs, fiber optic, and sleeper drones.
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are striking Ukrainian forces in northern Udachne.[66] Drone operators of the Russian Smuglyanka Detachment are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Myrnohrad.[67]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on September 30 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked toward Novopavlivka itself; southeast of Novopavlivka near Dachne and Horikhove; south of Novopavlivka near Filiya; and southwest of Filiya near Hrushivske, Novokhatske, and Zelenyi Hai on September 29 and 30.[68]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykomykhailivka direction on September 30 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykomykhailivka near Piddubne; east of Velykomykhailivka near Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, and Sichneve; southeast of Velykomykhailivka near Komyshuvakha, Sosnivka, Berezove, Ternove, Zaporizke, Vorone, and Novomykolaivka; south of Velykomykhailivka near Kalynivske and toward Orestopil; and southwest of Velykomykhailivka near Verbove and toward Oleksiivka on September 29 and 30.[69]
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City
Russian forces continued assaults northeast of Hulyaipole near Novohryhorivka, Uspenivka, Novoivanivka, Olhivske, and Poltavka on September 29 and 30.[70]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 30 but did not advance.
Russian forces continued assaults southwest of Orikhiv near Stepove and Kamyanka and northwest of Orikhiv near Stepnohirsk, Plavni, and Prymorske on September 29 and 30.[71]
Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on September 30 that Russian forces are accumulating forces ahead of renewed assaults near Mala Tokmachka (southeast of Orikhiv), Novodanylivka (south of Orikhiv), and Novoandriivka (west of Orikhiv).[72] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are experiencing a near-constant shortage of drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference near Orikhiv.[73]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Martyn Pushkar Detachment are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhia direction.[74] Drone operators of the 3rd assault company of the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Orikhiv.[75]
Russian forces continued assaults in the Kherson direction on September 29 and 30 but did not advance.[76]
A Russian milblogger claimed on September 29 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian raid on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[77] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have fire control over Karantynnyi Island (southwest of Kherson City) and are complicating Ukraine’s ability to launch raids into occupied Kherson Oblast.[78] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kherson direction posted footage of Ukrainian drone operators striking a Russian Repeynik anti-drone radar system in occupied Kherson Oblast.[79]
Ukrainian Special Forces reported on September 30 that Ukrainian drone operators struck the radar station of a Russian S-400 air defense system in an unspecified part of occupied Crimea on the night of September 29 to 30.[80]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the front line
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 29 to 30. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 65 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones, of which roughly 40 were Shahed-type drones, from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[81] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 46 drones and that 19 drones struck six locations and downed debris fell on two locations throughout Ukraine. Sumy Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Hryhorov reported that Russian drones killed four civilians, including two children, in Chernechchyna, Krasnopilska Hromada, Sumy Oblast.[82] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones damaged energy and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts.[83]
Significant Activity in Belarus
Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks
Nothing Significant To Report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
