How Much Can Iran Hurt US By Targeting Gulf Countries? Air Defence System Holds The Key For Middle East Peace

Air defence systems have moved to the centre of the Iran escalation, with interception capacity, stockpiles, and sustainability quietly shaping how far the conflict spreads and how long it lasts.

The fresh round of fighting between the US-led coalition – including Israel and the United Arab Emirates – and Iran has once again put air defence systems at the centre of the conflict. With Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in the airstrikes and Tehran promising to unleash “hellfire,” Middle East peace now hinges on the quality of the air defence system in place. Unlike last year’s intense Twelve-Day War in 2025, this escalation is unfolding across a wider theatre that includes the Persian Gulf. The big question now is not just who can fire more missiles, but who can stop more of them.

Air defence capabilities – how quickly countries can detect, track, and destroy incoming missiles and drones – may ultimately determine how long this conflict lasts and how costly it becomes.
Why Air Defence Matters

Missile defence systems are designed to detect and destroy incoming threats before they hit their targets. They rely on:

Satellites and ground-based radar to detect launches
Command centres to calculate the trajectory
Interceptors to destroy the incoming missile
Interceptors work in two main ways:
Proximity explosion, where a warhead detonates near the target.
Hit-to-kill, where the interceptor directly collides with the missile.

In modern warfare, defence is not just about protection, it shapes strategy. If one side can block most incoming attacks, it can stretch the war. If it runs out of interceptors, the balance shifts quickly.

Israel’s Layered Shield

Israel operates one of the world’s most complex layered air defence networks. During the 2025 Twelve-Day War, it faced more than 500 ballistic missiles and over twice as many “suicide drones.”

Its systems include:

Arrow 3 – intercepts ballistic missiles in space
Arrow 2 – engages threats inside the atmosphere
David's Sling with Stunner interceptors
Iron Dome – stops short-range rockets and drones
Iron Beam – high-energy laser against drones

Arrow 3 and US Navy destroyers using SM-3 missiles formed the first line of defence in 2025. But heavy use quickly reduced stockpiles.

“Iron Beam” has since become more important. Unlike missile interceptors that cost millions per shot, lasers cost far less per use. This allows Israel to “ration” its expensive interceptors such as Arrow 3 and Stunner.

The US Role: Expensive but Powerful

The United States has deployed multiple systems in the region:

Patriot
THAAD
SM-6

Indirect Fire Protection Capability using AIM-9X missiles

Patriot interceptors, especially the PAC-3 MSE variant, cost around $4 million per shot. Iran’s strategy of firing large numbers of cheaper missiles, known as a saturation attack, aims to exhaust these expensive defences.

According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “The only program designed to protect the entire United States homeland from a long-range missile attack is the GMD [Ground-based Midcourse Defence] program. GMD has a failing test record: a success rate of just 55% in highly scripted tests, including three misses in the last six tries.”

Even advanced systems face limits. Patriot has had strong single-night success, but as Russia demonstrated in Ukraine, adversaries adapt with decoys and maneuvering warheads. Over time, success rates can fall if attacks grow larger and more complex.

The Pentagon has increased production. But as Charles Corcoran and Ari Cicurel wrote in January 2026: “Production of all munitions—interceptors for THAAD, Patriot, Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome…—is far slower than current combat use or anticipated future high-intensity war requirements.”

They added that “Replenishing THAAD shortages … will take at least 1.5 years at current production capacity” and that US manufacturing has “not scaled for high-tempo operations in decades”.
The Gulf Factor: UAE’s Cheongung II

The Persian Gulf is narrow. A missile fired from coastal Iran can reach the UAE within minutes. That leaves very little reaction time.

The UAE has deployed the South Korean Cheongung II system. It uses:

360° radar coverage
Vertical launch capability
Hit-to-kill interception

Unlike older Patriot radars that scanned only a 120° cone, Cheongung II can respond to threats from any direction without physically rotating the launcher.

It is also designed to counter “sea skimming” missiles flying low over Gulf waters. The interceptor switches on its own radar seeker in the final seconds to track the target independently.

This makes it particularly suited for Gulf geography.
Iran’s Air Defence Network

Iran has built a layered defence of its own, although it is less tested against modern Western systems.

Key systems include:

Bavar-373 using Sayyad-4B missiles
Arman system with 360° radar
Sevom-e-Khordad
Tor-M1

Iran claims the Bavar-373 can detect stealth aircraft at long ranges. However, reported strikes near Tehran and Isfahan suggest that US and Israeli forces are penetrating these defences.

Iran’s systems are mobile, which makes them harder to destroy. But like all air defence batteries, they must reload after firing several interceptors. During that window, they are vulnerable.
The Cost Equation

One of the defining factors of this escalation is cost.

Iranian drones and missiles are relatively cheap.

US and Israeli interceptors are expensive.

Production capacity is limited.

If Iran can fire large salvos consistently, it may stress coalition stockpiles. If the US, Israel, and Gulf states can integrate their systems effectively and conserve interceptors – especially using lasers and cheaper interceptors – they can blunt Iran’s strategy.
What Will Decide the Escalation?

Air defence is now shaping the pace of the war.

If coalition systems:

Maintain high interception rates
Avoid interceptor shortages
Protect critical infrastructure

then Iran’s missile strategy may fail.

But if stockpiles run low, or if saturation attacks overwhelm radars and launchers, the damage could escalate rapidly.

In modern warfare, air defence is no longer just protection – it determines endurance. The side that sustains its shield longer may dictate how this conflict unfolds.