Eurasia Press & News
The two countries most affected by the halt in Russian oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary and Slovakia, stepped up their criticism of Ukraine for not restoring the flows promptly enough after it was apparently damaged in a Russian drone attack on Ukrainian territory at the end of January. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban convened the Defence Council on Wednesday to respond to what he called a “Ukrainian blockade”. The council concluded that in order to “strengthen the protection of critical energy infrastructure”, troops should be deployed across the country near key energy facilities. “Since January 27, no oil has been arriving in Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline. According to the data, it is clear that this unprecedented shutdown is not due to technical reasons but political ones – the Ukrainian government is exerting pressure on Hungary and Slovakia with an oil blockade,” Orban claimed, adding that he believes Ukraine is preparing further action aimed at disrupting the operation of Hungary’s energy system. Opposition leader Peter Magyar warned that the government might even stage drone attacks that it could later attribute to Ukraine, but argued that such attempts would lack credibility. “I ask you, Prime Minister, to stop psychologically terrorising your own people, stop the threats and the incitement of Hungarians against one another, and do not consider solutions that can be linked to Russian services,” Magyar said at a campaign event. Defence experts have dismissed Orban’s allegations about alleged Ukrainian actions against Hungary as blatant disinformation. Russia expert Andras Racz wrote on Facebook that if Hungary were truly facing an external threat, the government’s first step would be to initiate consultations under NATO’s Article 4, since the alliance guarantees protection of its member states. However, the government has not taken this step, which suggests its aim is political intimidation of the Hungarian electorate rather than responding to any real security risk.
In next-door Slovakia, PM Robert Fico intensified his confrontation with Ukraine, threatening further retaliation over disrupted Russian oil supplies while moving to halt emergency electricity assistance to Kyiv. Fico said Slovakia would stop providing emergency electricity used to stabilise Ukraine’s grid during outages, describing the move as a “reciprocal measure” after oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline were halted. He accused Kyiv of deliberately blocking supplies – a claim Ukrainian officials reject, saying the pipeline was damaged by a Russian attack in late January. According to Fico, Ukraine has repeatedly postponed restoring flows, most recently to March 3. “If Ukraine experiences power shortages, they will feel it,” Fico said, arguing that emergency electricity was more critical than commercial imports Ukraine could obtain elsewhere. He also signalled Slovakia could toughen its stance on Ukraine’s EU membership bid. Energy expert Radovan Potocar described the decision as a “stab in the back”, noting the order to the state transmission operator SEPS came on the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The full impact of the measure remains unclear. SEPS, which has an emergency assistance agreement with Ukraine valid until May 2026, declined to comment. Ukraine’s grid operator, Ukrenergo, said it had received no formal notification and maintained that losing Slovak emergency power would not significantly affect the system. Electricity imports continue from several neighbouring countries, and even Hungary has not decided to halt emergency electricity supplies. Opposition politicians in Slovakia accused Fico of endangering the country’s credibility and acting against European solidarity, with some describing the move as treason and a crime against humanity, while Amnesty International warned that using electricity as leverage during winter attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure could have serious humanitarian consequences. The Slovak and Ukrainian transmission systems are connected via the cross-border line between Velke Kapusany and Mukachevo. In April 2024, Fico and Ukraine’s then prime minister Denys Shmyhal signed an intergovernmental roadmap to modernise and strengthen electricity interconnections between the two countries. As for Russian oil, the Bratislava refinery Slovnaft says it expects to be fully prepared to process non-Russian crude by 2027. Infrastructure readiness remains a separate challenge. Slovakia’s main alternative to Druzhba is Croatia’s Adria pipeline, supplemented to some extent by reverse flows from the Czech Republic.
Polish cohabitation under strain as institutional clashes meet coalition fragility
Poland’s uneasy cohabitation is moving from tactical skirmishes into something closer to systemic confrontation. President Karol Nawrocki has signalled he may veto legislation enabling Warsaw to tap the EU’s SAFE defence financing – a move that could stall billions earmarked for military modernisation. Publicly, Nawrocki is framing his hesitation as a question of sovereignty and legal clarity, insisting the program requires “serious debate, not political pressure”. Around him, however, politicians from the opposition PiS party have amplified a far sharper message, portraying SAFE as a step toward Brussels exerting control over Polish defence policy. The narrative has gained traction in partisan media despite limited factual grounding, reflecting a broader ‘Polexit’-tinged rhetoric that casts EU security cooperation as a political threat rather than a strategic tool. For the government, the stakes are more immediate. Ministers argue SAFE is less about ideology than urgency – financing ammunition, drones and air defence systems at a time when Poland is positioning itself as Europe’s frontline military hub. With the constitutional deadline approaching, Nawrocki’s looming decision turns what might have been a technical funding mechanism into a test of political leverage – and a signal of how far the president is willing to use veto power to shape the agenda before the next electoral cycle. Recent polling suggests the political drama may be out of step with public sentiment, with a clear majority of Poles saying President Nawrocki should sign the SAFE legislation.
The clash over defence financing is unfolding alongside a deepening institutional dispute over the rule of law. Nawrocki recently vetoed a government bill aimed at restructuring the judiciary and instead proposed his own draft that would penalise judges who question appointments made through the current National Judicial Council. Critics say the proposal risks criminalising internal legal disputes and further entrenching Poland’s long-running judicial crisis. Justice Minister Waldemar Zurek has responded sharply, warning he “will not step back from rebuilding the rule of law”, while Parliamentary Speaker Wlodzimierz Czarzasty launched consultations and referred the presidential draft to the Venice Commission amid concerns it could clash with EU standards. Together, the SAFE standoff and the judicial battle suggest a presidency increasingly willing to turn institutional friction into a political strategy – one that keeps the governing coalition permanently on the defensive.
Yet the pressure on Tusk’s camp is not coming only from the presidential palace. Inside the governing coalition, tensions within Polska 2050 – once presented as the centrist bridge holding disparate voters together – have deepened following a leadership contest that elevated Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz to the party’s top post. In the weeks after her victory, a group of MPs challenged the new leadership, accusing it of centralising decision-making and halting internal reforms. The dispute culminated in a parliamentary split, with several lawmakers leaving to form the new Sejm club Centrum, arguing they needed political space outside what one rebel described as an increasingly rigid party structure. Party leaders insist the departures reflect frustration with a “democratic decision” rather than a shift in policy direction. But weak polling – in some surveys placing Polska 2050 close to or below the threshold to get into parliament – has intensified doubts about the party’s electoral viability and its role within the coalition. What makes the rupture politically significant is not just the loss of MPs, but the transformation of a movement once built on an anti-duopoly promise into a fragmented actor struggling to define its place inside a conventional governing bloc. The parliamentary majority remains intact for now, yet a diminished centrist partner risks narrowing Tusk’s room for manoeuvre – turning internal today into a strategic liability in the next electoral contest.
Czech MPs to debate lifting immunity of Babis and Okamura; budget cuts to defence
Czechia’s lower house will convene for an extraordinary meeting on March 5 to discuss the lifting of parliamentary immunity for Prime Minister Andrej Babis and Speaker Tomio Okamura, head of the far-right SPD, a junior coalition partner. The debate will first focus on whether or not the PM, who along with his former advisor and MEP Jana Nagyova is facing accusations of subsidy fraud in the long-running Stork’s Nest case, should face criminal proceedings in court. In the never-ending judicial affair that has spanned four terms of government, MPs already voted twice in favour of lifting his immunity in 2017 and 2018. Babis was acquitted twice in the case but saw the latest judgement overturned by a Prague appeals court in summer 2025. Accused of illegally obtaining some 2 million euros in subsidies meant for small and medium-sized companies, the PM has repeatedly described the case as a political witch hunt. Okamura, for his part, is facing charges of inciting hatred in connection with his party’s campaign posters two years ago containing racist and xenophobic overtones, allegations he denies while invoking freedom of speech. Earlier this month, the Chamber of Deputies’ Mandate and Immunity Committee advised against the plenary – where the three-party ruling coalition of ANO, SPD and the Motorists hold a comfortable majority – complying with the court’s request to transfer the pair for criminal prosecution. Opposition parties have accused Babis and his coalition allies of forming a pact to protect one another from possible prosecution following October’s parliamentary election, when both leaders automatically regained their immunity.
According to the revised state budget, now under discussion in parliamentary committees, the Defence Ministry would see its 2026 budget reduced by about 21 billion crowns from the previous government’s plans to spend 156 billion crowns (about 6.5 billion euros). Corresponding to just 2.07 per cent of GDP when taking into account defence-related spending from other ministries, this level could put Czechia at the bottom of NATO countries’ ranking in terms of relative defence expenditures. Defence Minister Jaromir Zuna – a non-partisan nominee for the Russia-friendly, anti-NATO SPD party – assured the reduction was only “transitional” and would not affect planned modernisation and armament goals, and that defence expenditure would rise in the next few years to reach 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2028. In a Thursday interview with Denik.cz, Prime Minister Babis flouted the Czech Republic will not try to reach the 3.5 per cent of GDP defence target set by NATO allies last year for 2035, saying his government’s priority “is the health of our fellow citizens, so that they live long”. “In order for citizens to live long, we should first and foremost take care of our security”, hit back former PM Fiala. Other opposition MPs criticised the cuts, saying they were bound to undermine Czechia’s defence capabilities at a time of extreme geopolitical uncertainty, belittle Prague’s voice among NATO allies and jeopardise relations with the US administration. Top defence officials also warned this was going in the wrong direction. “The era of carelessness and the illusion that security is free is over,” warned Chief of the General Staff Karel Rehka. “Yes, defence and security are expensive. But without them, there is no prosperity or anything else.” Meanwhile, the latest research from the Centre for Public Opinion found that more than half of respondents do not believe Czechia would be able to defend itself in the event of a conflict.
Hungary headed for all-conservative parliament as MSZP bows out
The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), once a mighty political force, announced at a party congress last weekend that it won’t put up any candidates to run in the 2026 election. “For the first time in 36 years, the Hungarian Socialist Party will not run in the parliamentary elections – this was a very hard decision,” party chairman Imre Komjathi said in an interview, announcing that the leftist party would continue as a non-parliamentary movement for the time being. Four party members will, however, test voters in their constituencies, either with Socialist affiliation or as independent candidates. The party, which was in power for 12 years from 1990, blamed Hungary’s unfair and unjust electoral system for the decision, arguing that the ruling party of Viktor Orban can only be defeated if the strongest candidate runs against the Fidesz-backed contender in every constituency. “One thing is certain: the electoral law must be changed, because otherwise we cannot return to a normal democracy,” Komjathi said. The MSZP is the last of Hungary’s leftist and liberal opposition parties to decide to withdraw from the election in order to make way for the main opposition party, the centre-right Tisza, to maximise the number of votes from the Fidesz-critical section of the electorate. The leftist-liberal Democratic Coalition, once an offshoot of the Socialists, has decided to stay in the race but is unlikely to achieve the 5 per cent threshold, meaning that Hungary could be headed towards an all-conservative parliament.
Slovak government considers plan to scrap postal voting
The opposition Progressive Slovakia (PS) party said this week it had credible information that Robert Fico’s cabinet is considering abolishing voting by post, which currently allows Slovaks abroad to participate in parliamentary elections without travelling home. Party leader Michal Simecka warned the move would disproportionately affect expatriates, many of whom live far from embassies and would face costly journeys to vote in person. For several days, government representatives insisted no such reform was being prepared. However, on Thursday, Erik Kalinak – a European parliamentarian and chief adviser to the PM – told a pro-Russian disinformation outlet that the coalition is indeed working on changes to postal voting rules. Introduced in 2004, postal voting has become increasingly significant in Slovak elections. Around 60,000 citizens from more than 100 countries voted by mail in the 2023 parliamentary election, with roughly three-quarters backing opposition parties. The ruling Smer party received only a small share of those votes, a fact opposition politicians say explains the proposed reform. Defence Minister Robert Kalinak questioned whether postal voting meets constitutional standards for direct and secret elections, arguing that Slovaks abroad should instead vote at embassies. Citing Denmark as an example, he said those who “live and pay taxes” in Slovakia should primarily decide its political future. Fico indicated he would support abolishing postal voting if parliament proposed it, citing concerns about potential manipulation – claims for which no evidence has been presented. He suggested additional polling stations abroad could replace postal voting. Any change would require only an ordinary amendment to election law, meaning the governing coalition has enough votes to pass it. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing Slovaks almost evenly split over whether postal voting from abroad should continue.
