Eurasia Press & News
Toplines
France will reportedly send Ukraine the newest version of the SAMP/T NG anti-aircraft missile system for battlefield testing against Russian ballistic missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 14 that France will give Ukraine an unspecified number of the newest version of the SAMP/T NG anti-aircraft missile system at an unspecified time in 2026 for Ukraine to test against Russian ballistic missiles.[1] Zelensky noted that he and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed that Ukraine will be the first country to receive the systems if the system proves itself effective at intercepting ballistic missiles. Russia’s continued use of strike packages that increasingly use ballistic missiles highlights the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, particularly with air defense systems that can counter Russian ballistic missiles.[2]
A Russian milblogger claimed that some units in the Russian military are forcing their servicemembers to delete Telegram, contradicting some Russian officials’ statements that the Russian military would be allowed to continue using Telegram to support combat operations. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on March 15 that Russian sources in the field reported that unspecified elements of the Russian military have issued instructions for servicemembers to remove the Telegram app from their phones.[3] The milblogger claimed that the Russian military police are checking phones to ensure that servicemembers delete Telegram and that the Russian military command is promoting the Russian state-controlled messaging app Max as an alternative. The milblogger noted that the Max messenger app remains very inconvenient to use and noted that some unspecified special forces units have banned the use of Max.[4] The milblogger characterized Russian units’ enforcement of the new messaging platform as ununiform, claiming that some units are enforcing the orders to remove Telegram and switch to Max whereas other units continue to communicate through Telegram.[5] The milblogger noted that the ununiform enforcement of Telegram bans suggests that the orders likely arise from particular units as opposed to from a universal standard enforced by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Kremlin officials claimed on February 11 that Russian forces are not using Telegram for frontline communications but then began to backtrack on these statements on February 18 after widespread backlash from the Russian milblogger community.[6] Russian Minister of Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media Maksut Shadayev claimed that Russian officials had not made a decision to restrict Telegram in the war zone in Ukraine.[7] The milblogger’s claim that some Russian units are beginning to ban the use of Telegram in contradiction to the Kremlin’s current official policy is noteworthy. Some units’ decision to ban Telegram could indicate that Russia is still planning to ban Telegram on the frontlines more universally. It alternatively could indicate that some Russian commanders seek to gain favor with the Kremlin by enforcing policies ahead of official orders coming down from the Ministry of Defense. The blocking of Telegram will likely degrade Russian command and control (C2) and exacerbate existing issues with communication that Russian forces have struggled with since the February 1 Starlink block.[8]
Key Takeaways
France reportedly will send Ukraine the newest version of the SAMP/T NG anti-aircraft missile system for battlefield testing against Russian ballistic missiles.
A Russian milblogger claimed that some units in the Russian military are forcing their servicemembers to delete Telegram, contradicting some Russian officials’ statements that the Russian military would be allowed to continue using Telegram to support combat operations.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk and in Kostyantynivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil and energy infrastructure. Russian forces launched 97 drones against Ukraine, including in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
Ukrainian forces likely struck Russian oil and energy infrastructure overnight on March 14 to 15. Geolocated footage published on March 14 shows a fire at the Tikhoretsk oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai.[9] Krasnodar Krai authorities claimed on March 15 that debris from downed Ukrainian drones caused the fire at the Tikhoretsk oil pumping station.[10] Ukrainian forces most recently struck the Tikhoretsk oil pumping station on the night of March 11 to 12.[11] Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes damaged energy infrastructure in Belgorod City, causing power outages.[12]
Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis
Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in Sumy Oblast along the international border
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Sumy direction on March 15 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked in Sumy Oblast, including northwest of Sumy City near Sopych on March 14 and 15.[13]
Order of Battle: Mobile groups of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Kursk Oblast international border area.[14] Drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Sumy Oblast.[15]
Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast
Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border to create a defensible buffer zone with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on March 15 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Izbytske, Vovchanski Khutory, and Verkhnya Pysarivka on March 14 and 15.[16]
Geolocated footage published on March 14 shows Russian forces striking Rubizhne (southwest of Vovchansk) with a FAB-500 glide bomb.[17]
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Velykyi Burluk direction on March 15.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River
Russian objective: Cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on March 15 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kupyansk near Fyholivka; east of Kupyansk near Podoly and Kucherivka and toward Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk toward Hlushkivka, Kurylivka, and Novoosynove on March 14 and 15.[18] A Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Kupyansk.[19]
A Russian division operating in the Kupyansk direction reportedly lost its combat capabilities. A Ukrainian Telegram source reporting on Kharkiv Oblast reported on March 15 that the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) operating in the Kupyansk direction has recently suffered significant personnel and equipment losses to the extent that the division has lost its combat potential, forcing the division to withdraw from positions in the Kupyansk direction.[20]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the 7th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA, MMD) are striking Ukrainian forces in northeastern Novoosynove (southeast of Kupyansk).[21]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 15 that Ukrainian forces struck a concentration of Russian manpower near Kupyansk.[22]
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Borova direction on March 15.
Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Luhansk Oblast. A Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) channel reported on March 14 that Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces struck a Russian air defense missile depot near occupied Dovzhansk, Luhansk Oblast (roughly 142 kilometers from the frontline).[23] Geolocated footage published on March 14 shows a large fire north of occupied Dovzhansk.[24]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast
Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Yampil (southeast of Lyman).[25]
Refinement of areas under Russian claims: The geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely still hold Ozerne (southeast of Lyman) — an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained positions.[26]
Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Drobysheve; north of Lyman near Stavky; southeast of Lyman near Yampil; northeast of Slovyansk near Platonivka and Dronivka; east of Slovyansk near Zakitne, Riznykivka, Kryva Luka, and Rai-Oleksandrivka; and southeast of Slovyansk near Nykyforivka and Fedorivka Druha on March 14 and 15.[27]
The Atesh Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group reported that its agents destroyed a transformer supplying power to the headquarters of the Russian “123rd Artillery Brigade,” likely referring to the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) in occupied Severodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast (roughly 32 kilometers from the frontline).[28] Footage published on March 14 purportedly shows an Atesh agent setting fire to the transformer in Severodonetsk.[29]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 169th Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are striking a Ukrainian position in southern Yampil.[30] Drone operators of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly operating in the Siversk direction (east of Slovyansk).[31] Drone operators of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly operating in the Lyman direction.[32]
Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka.[33]
Assessed Russian advances: Additional geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Stupochky (east of Kostyantynivka).[34]
Refinement of areas under Russian claims: Additional geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions in southern Kostyantynivka, contrary to Russian claims that Russian forces hold a presence in the area.[35]
Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself; northeast of Kostyantynivka near Novomarkove; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillya, and Kleban-Byk; southwest of Kostyantynivka near Rusyn Yar; west of Kostyantynivka near Illinivka; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Novopavlivka and Sofiivka on March 14 and 15.[36]
A Ukrainian company commander operating in the Kramatorsk direction reported on March 15 that Russian forces continue sending minimally-trained personnel to conduct assaults and that three weeks to a month pass between new recruits signing their contracts and conducting ground assaults.[37]
Order of Battle: Drone operators and artillery crews of the Russian 1008th, 1307th, and 1442nd motorized rifle regiments and the 89th Tank Regiment (all 6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd AC under operational control of the Southern Grouping of Forces), of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD), of the 20th Motorized Rifle Regiment (possibly a reformed Soviet unit), and of the Russian Zmey Gorynych detachment (Russian Federal Security Service’s [FSB] Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Directorate) are striking Ukrainian positions within Kostyantynivka.[38] Drone operators of the 57th Spetsnaz Company (8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Druzhkivka and Toretske (southwest of Druzhkivka).[39] Drone operators of the Grachi Detachment of the 346th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) reportedly continue to operate in the Kostyantynivka direction.[40]
Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Dobropillya near Toretske and east of Dobropillya near Novyi Donbas and Nove Shakhove on March 14 and 15 but did not advance.[41]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on March 15 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne and Serhiivka; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and Bilytske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad, Zatyshok, and Sukhetske; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Molodetske and Udachne on March 14 and 15.[42]
The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting search and strike operations in Hryshyne and are clearing central Hryshyne, where heavy fighting continues.[43]
Russian milbloggers claimed that drone operators of the 75th Motorized Rifle Regiment (201st Military Base, Central Military District [CMD]) are fielding several drones simultaneously and leveraging swarm tactics to strike Ukrainian positions and logistics in the Pokrovsk direction.[44]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 80th Sparta Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (51st CAA, formerly 1st DNR AC, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Novooleksandrivka (northwest of Pokrovsk).[45] Drone operators of the 57th Spetsnaz Company are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Myrne (northwest of Pokrovsk).[46]
Ukrainian forces continued their frontline strike campaign against Russian military assets in the Dobropillya tactical area and Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian manpower concentrations near Shakhove, Udachne (both roughly two kilometers from the frontline), and Pokrovsk itself.[47]
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations near Novopavlivka itself on March 14 and 15 but did not advance.[48]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on March 15 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked east of Oleksandrivka near Oleksandrohrad and southeast of Oleksandrivka near Berezove, Ternove, Novomykolaivka, and Novohryhorivka and toward Verbove on March 14 and 15.[49]
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on March 15 but did not make confirmed advances.
Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on March 14 shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position east of Hulyaipilske (southwest of Hulyaipole) in what ISW assesses was an infiltration operation that did not change the control of terrain or forward edge of battle (FEBA).[50]
Unconfirmed claim: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Zahirne (southwest of Hulyaipole).[51]
Russian forces attacked near Hulyaipole itself; northwest of Hulyaipole toward Rizdvyanka, Varvarivka, Olenokostyantynivka, Svyatopetrivka, Dobropillya, and Zelene; northeast of Hulyaipole near Zlahoda; west of Hulyaipole near Zaliznychne; and southwest of Hulyaipole near Myrne and toward Charivne and Hulyaipilske on March 14 and 15.[52]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are striking Ukrainian forces northeast of Lisne and reportedly near Barvinivka (both northwest of Hulyaipole) and Vozdvyzhanka.[53]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on March 15 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked northwest of Orikhiv near Pavlivka and west of Orikhiv near Prymorske, Shcherbaky, Richne, and Stepnohirsk on March 14 and 15.[54]
A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Prymorske and Stepnohirsk.[55]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 7th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue operating in Zaporizhia Oblast.[56]
Ukrainian forces continue their mid-range strikes against Russian military infrastructure in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 15 that Ukrainian forces struck a logistics warehouse near occupied Osypenko (roughly 90 kilometers from the frontline) and a drone storage warehouse near occupied Prymorsk (roughly 91 kilometers from the frontline).[57]
Russian forces continued limited attacks southwest of Kherson City near Bilohrudyi and Kruhlyk islands on March 14 and 15 but did not advance.[58]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 4th Military Base (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Ponyativka (northeast of Kherson City).[59] Drone operators of the 80th Separate Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in west (right) bank Kherson Oblast.[60]
Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against a Russian force concentration in occupied Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian personnel concentration near occupied Petrivka, Kherson Oblast (one of multiple settlements around 14, 20, or 100 kilometers from the frontline).[61]
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Crimea overnight on March 14 to 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Protvynik 59N6-E and Parol 73E6 radar stations near occupied Kitay (formerly Libknekhtivka, about 280 kilometers from the frontline) and an S-400 air defense missile launcher near occupied Dalne (about 168 kilometers from the frontline) and that Ukraine is still conducting a battle damage assessment.[62] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian strikes against occupied Prymorske on March 10 significantly damaged a Russian Valdai radar station.
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the front line
Russian forces continued long-range drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on March 14 to 15. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 97 Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas-type drones, of which about 70 were Shaheds, from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol Cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[63] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 90 Russian drones, that five Russian drones struck five locations, and that fragments of downed drones hit two locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones struck a checkpoint, transport infrastructure, and energy infrastructure in Chernihiv Oblast; a passenger locomotive near Novoselytsya, Sumy Oblast; and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv City and Oblast.[64]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 15 that Russian forces struck Ukraine with about 1,770 long-range strike drones, over 1,530 guided glide bombs, and about 86 missiles including over 20 ballistic missiles in the past week (since about March 8).[65] Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian air defenses intercept about 78 percent of Russian drones, likely referring to the area near Zaporizhzhia City.[66]
Significant Activity in Belarus
Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks
Nothing Significant To Report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
