Eurasia Press & News
NOTE: ISW-CTP will no longer publish morning updates covering the war with Iran. ISW-CTP will instead publish threads on its social media channels in the morning that cover the latest developments in the war and include relevant maps.
Key Takeaways
The United States presented a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan on March 24. The 15-point proposal reportedly includes provisions requiring Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, limit its missile capabilities, cease support for the Axis of Resistance, and ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, among other demands. The Trump administration has reportedly not yet received a formal Iranian response to the US proposal. The White House threatened on March 25 to conduct further military action against Iran if the regime does not agree to a deal to end the conflict.
Iran sent a letter to International Maritime Organization member states on March 22 stating that “non-hostile” ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iran. Ships associated with the United States, Israel, or other “participants in the aggression” are not eligible for safe passage. Vessel operators are required to contact intermediaries with connections to the IRGC before transiting through the strait.
A longtime observer of drone operations suggested on March 25 that drone footage posted by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on March 24 is consistent with a fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drone. ISW-CTP is unable to authenticate the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s video. Iran’s ability to manufacture and operate fiber-optic FPV drones and transfer this technology to its regional proxies and partners would pose a significant challenge to US interests in the Middle East, if the footage is authentic.
ISW-CTP has recorded an uptick in combined force strikes targeting Iranian defense industrial sites since its last data cutoff. This uptick comes amid a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to destroy as much of Iran’s arms industry as possible over the next 48 hours.Toplines
The United States presented a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan on March 24.[1] Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir, who has reportedly served as the “key interlocutor” between the United States and Iran, delivered the proposal to Iran.[2] Munir also contacted Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and offered to host talks between the United States and Iran.[3] The 15-point proposal reportedly includes provisions requiring Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, grant full International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to Iranian nuclear facilities, limit its missile capabilities, cease support for the Axis of Resistance, and ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.[4] Three unspecified sources familiar with the details of the proposal told Israeli media on March 24 that US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are trying to establish a month-long ceasefire during which the United States and Iran would negotiate the 15-point proposal.[5] Iran separately proposed five conditions for a ceasefire, including the complete cessation of US and Israeli attacks, establishment of a mechanism to prevent renewed conflict, compensation for wartime damages, an end to attacks on the Axis of Resistance, and international recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz.[6] Unspecified Iranian officials told Iranian media that no direct negotiations are currently taking place between the United States and Iran and that Iran will set the timing and conditions for ending the war.[7] An Axios correspondent reported on March 25 that the Trump administration has not yet received a formal Iranian response to the US proposal for negotiations, citing an unspecified US official.[8] The White House threatened on March 25 to conduct further military action against Iran if the regime does not agree to a deal to end the conflict.[9]
A longtime observer of drone operations suggested on March 25 that drone footage posted by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on March 24 is consistent with a fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drone.[10] ISW-CTP is unable to authenticate the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s video, however. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, claimed that it attacked the former US Victory Base at Baghdad International Airport and posted drone footage of the attack.[11] The United States transferred control of the Victory Base to the Iraqi federal government in 2011, but Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have continuously claimed attacks targeting the base since the start of the war.[12] The drone footage shows that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted a helicopter and a US radar system.[13] ISW-CTP has not observed any evidence to support the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s claim that it attacked the Victory Base around March 24. Iraqi media reported two separate drone attacks targeting Baghdad International Airport on March 22 but did not provide enough information for ISW-CTP to assess whether the video that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq posted on March 24 was from one of those attacks.[14] Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front group Saraya Awliya al Dam posted footage on March 17 that open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts also assessed to be from a fiber-optic FPV reconnaissance drone flying inside the parameter of the US Embassy in Baghdad.[15] ISW-CTP assessed on March 17 that the group’s decision to advertise its possession of such a weapon represented a threat aimed at the United States.[16]
If the Islamic Resistance in Iraq’s video is authentic, Iran’s ability to transfer this technology to its regional proxies and partners would pose a significant challenge to US interests in the Middle East. Fiber-optic FPV drones are immune to jamming and can be used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, or outfitted with strike capabilities to conduct precise targeting.[17] The drones have small ranges and generally carry small payloads but can impose financial costs when used to target expensive assets.[18] Russia and Ukraine have extensively used FPV drones in their war.[19] Russia has given drone components to Iran, and Russia would be the most likely actor to have provided Iran with fiber-optic drone capabilities.[20]
Iran sent a letter to International Maritime Organization member states on March 22 stating that “non-hostile” ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iran, according to the Financial Times.[21] Ships associated with the United States, Israel, or other “participants in the aggression” are not eligible for safe passage. This report is consistent with reports that at least 26 vessels have taken an Iranian-approved route through the Strait of Hormuz as of March 25.[22] Iran has reportedly required some of these vessels to pay a fee to transit the strait. Maritime intelligence firm Lloyd’s List, citing three sources with direct knowledge of the new system, reported that vessel operators are required to contact intermediaries with connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) before transiting through the strait.[23] Lloyd’s List reported that 92 percent of the current traffic in the strait is comprised of Iranian (67 percent), Greek (15 percent), and Chinese (10 percent) vessels.[24]
The Wall Street Journal confirmed on March 24 that Israeli strikes on a major Caspian Sea port in northern Iran last week targeted Russian support for Iran in the ongoing war, according to unspecified people familiar with the matter.[25] This report is consistent with ISW-CTP’s previous reporting that the IDF struck a Caspian Sea port that Iran uses to trade both military and non-military goods with Russia.[26] The IDF targeted “dozens” of vessels, a command center, and a shipyard at Bandar Anzali Port, Gilan Province, on March 18.[27] The Israeli strike on the port followed reports that Russia has provided Iran with satellite imagery and Shahed drones since the war began.[28] Israeli media reported on March 19 that the Israeli strikes in Bandar Anzali “shut down” a critical supply line between Iran and Russia for both basic goods, such as wheat imports, and military equipment.[29] TheWall Street Journal added on March 24 that Russia uses the Caspian Sea to receive Iranian Shahed drones as well as artillery shells and other ammunition to resupply its troops on the front lines with Ukraine.[30] More than 300,000 artillery shells and a million rounds of ammunition were shipped from Iran to Russia in 2023 via the Caspian Sea, according to unspecified documents seen by the Wall Street Journal.
US and Israeli Air Campaign
The combined force continued to strike Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities. Commercially available satellite imagery from March 14 indicates that the combined force struck the Imam Javad Missile Base north of Shiraz, Fars Province. Combined force strikes targeted three tunnel entrances to underground facilities as well as five adjacent storage bunkers at the base.[31] Commercially available satellite imagery shows that the IDF previously struck the base’s administrative support buildings and missile assembly hangar during the 12-Day War.[32] The combined force likely struck the Imam Javad Missile Base again on March 25. Anti-regime media published a video that shows smoke rising from a military facility near the “Imam Javad Barracks,” which suggests that the combined force likely struck the Imam Javad Missile Base.[33] The IDF said on March 20 that it has observed an increase in Iranian ballistic missile launches toward Israel from central Iran due to the combined force’s degradation of Iranian launch capabilities in western Iran.[34] It is possible that the combined force struck the Imam Javad Missile Base in response to Iranian attempts to launch missiles from the base. The Imam Javad Missile Base is an underground missile base that contains Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, according to an Israeli think tank.[35]
The combined force has continued to degrade Iranian air and air defense capabilities to maintain air dominance over parts of Iran. Multiple OSINT accounts geolocated footage of US Central Command (CENTCOM) strikes on ammunition bunkers at the 9th Artesh Air Force Tactical Airbase in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on March 25.[36] CENTCOM footage shows at least four strikes on bunkers at the airbase, followed by a large secondary explosion.[37] The combined force previously struck the 9th Artesh Air Force Tactical Airbase on March 10, March 15, and March 20.[38]
The combined force likely struck the 14th Artesh Air Force Tactical Airbase in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province, on March 25, which marks the most northeastern site the combined force has targeted since the start of the war.[39] An Iranian OSINT account published a photo of strikes near the Mashhad International Airport on March 25.[40] The 14th Artesh Air Force Tactical Airbase is co-located with the Mashhad International Airport. Iranian officials confirmed the strikes to Iranian media on March 25.[41]
ISW-CTP has recorded an uptick in combined force strikes targeting Iranian defense industrial sites since its last data cutoff. This uptick comes amid a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF to destroy as much of Iran’s arms industry as possible over the next 48 hours.[42] The New York Times reported on March 25 that Netanyahu ordered the IDF to maximize its destruction of Iran’s arms industry over the next 48 hours, citing two senior Israeli officials.[43] The IDF reported that it struck two facilities in Tehran where Iran manufactured naval cruise missiles.[44] One strike targeted a building in the Shiyan neighborhood in eastern Tehran, while the other targeted the Shahid Motahari Applied Scientific Education Center in Imam Khomeini Town, northeastern Tehran.[45] The IDF said on March 25 that it also struck an air and naval weapons production site near Vandar, Ghazvin Province.[46] The IDF separately said on March 25 that it struck the Underwater Military Equipment Research and Development Center in northern Esfahan City, which is responsible for designing and developing submarines and support systems.[47] The IDF said that the facility is the only site in Iran responsible for developing submarines and auxiliary systems.[48] The submarine facility is located next to the Defense Industries Organization-affiliated Malek Ashtar University of Technology in Shahin Shahr, Esfahan Province, which the combined force struck on March 24.[49] These IDF strikes are consistent with the combined force’s effort to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
The combined force continued to strike industrial sites and companies with ties to the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. Geolocated images from an OSINT account on March 25 show that combined force strikes destroyed a hangar and a building at the Pars Aviation Services Company (PASC) at the Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran.[50] Commercially available satellite imagery indicates that the combined force struck the hangar and building between March 8 and 9. The strikes may have targeted aircraft in the hangar, given that commercially available satellite imagery shows an Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft outside the hangar. The PASC is an Iranian aircraft supply and repair company that is affiliated with the IRGC and sanctioned by the United States, the United Nations, and several other Western nations.[51] PASC is responsible for the calibration of Iranian aerial equipment, the design and construction of aerial systems, and the supply and repair of aircraft and helicopter parts.[52] The combined force previously struck Mehrabad Airport on February 28, March 7, and March 19.[53] Combined force strikes on March 7 targeted aircraft near the PASC hangar but not the PASC hangar itself.[54]
The combined force likely struck the Alborz Industrial Zone for the first time on March 25, possibly targeting a building belonging to Shahid Shafi Zadeh Industries.[55] An Israeli OSINT account published a video on March 25 that shows multiple combined force strikes on the Alborz Industrial Zone, followed by secondary explosions.[56] The OSINT account reported that the strikes may have targeted the Shahid Shafi Zadeh Industrial Complex, which is a subsidiary of the Iranian Defense Ministry’s Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO).[57] The Shahid Shafi Zadeh Industrial Complex manufactures components for ballistic missiles.[58]
The combined force may have struck the Parchin Military Complex in Tehran Province on March 25.[59] Anti-regime media published a video of smoke rising from Parchin following possible combined force strikes on the complex.[60] The combined force has struck Parchin on at least three previous occasions, including on March 3, March 7, and March 12.[61]
The combined force has continued to target IRGC commanders. IRGC-affiliated media reported on March 23 that the combined force killed IRGC 1st Naval District Commander Mosayeb Bakhtiari.[62] The combined force reportedly killed Bakhtiari in a strike in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province.[63] The combined force has repeatedly struck Iranian naval facilities at the Bandar Abbas Port, which houses the IRGC Navy 1st Naval District and IRGC Navy Headquarters.[64] Iranian media also announced the death of the IRGC Ground Forces 41st Sarallah Division Commander Amir Mohammadi.[65] The combined force reportedly targeted the 41st Sarallah Division headquarters in Kerman City, Kerman Province, on March 20.[66] IRGC-affiliated media also confirmed on March 16 that IRGC commander Javad Bagheri was killed in combined force strikes.[67] Bagheri is the brother of former Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, whom Israel killed during the 12-Day War.[68]
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant did not sustain damage after a projectile landed on the facility’s premises. Iran notified the IAEA that an unspecified projectile landed in the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant facility’s premises on March 24.[69] Iran previously notified the IAEA of a “projectile incident” near the plant on March 17 that also caused no damage.[70] The Institute for Science and International Security identified an impact crater about 350 meters from the power plant’s reactor in March 18 satellite imagery.[71] Rosatom reportedly evacuated 163 Russian technicians from the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant on March 24.[72] Rosatom Director General Alexei Likhachev said that 300 Russian technicians currently remain at the power plant.[73] Likhachev stated that more Russian technicians will evacuate the plant in the future.[74] No technicians were injured in the March 17 and 24 incidents.
An Israeli geospatial analyst and an Israeli think tank published satellite imagery from March 22 showing damage to a chemical plant near Garmsar, Semnan Province.[75] The chemical plant consists of multiple facilities.[76] The satellite imagery shows damage to two unspecified buildings in the plant’s western facility and one building in the plant’s eastern facility.[77] The IDF previously struck one of the facilities during the 12-Day War and described the facility as a liquid fuel production facility for Iranian ballistic missiles.[78]
Iranian Response
Iran has launched seven waves of missiles targeting Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff.[79] Six of the seven waves reportedly included only a single missile that the IDF intercepted.[80] An Iranian missile impacted near the Orot Rabin Power Plant in Hadera, Israel, on March 25.[81] The Israeli Electric Corporation stated on March 25 that there was no damage to the plant’s infrastructure.[82] An OSINT account reported that one missile impacted in southern Israel on March 25, injuring at least two people.[83]
Iran continued to target Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on March 25. Two unspecified sources told Israeli media on March 22 that Iran had decided to limit its attacks on Saudi Arabia due to concerns that continued strikes could trigger a direct Saudi military response.[84] The rate of Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia has fluctuated since then, however. Iran launched 7 drones at Saudi Arabia on March 22, 47 drones on March 23, 32 drones on March 24, and 6 drones on March 25.[85] Iran separately fired nine drones and 20 ballistic missiles targeting Kuwait on March 25.[86] One of the Iranian drones struck a fuel tank at the Kuwait International Airport in Kuwait City.[87] Iran launched thirty drones targeting Bahrain on March 25.[88] ISW-CTP previously noted that Iran may be increasing drone attacks against Bahrain to compensate for an apparent pause in drone attacks against Qatar. Iran also launched nine drones targeting the UAE on March 25.[89]
Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response
Hezbollah claimed 79 attacks targeting Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, as well as northern Israeli towns, between 3:00 PM ET on March 24 and 3:00 PM ET on March 25.[90] This marks the highest number of attacks against Israeli forces in Israel and southern Lebanon that Hezbollah has claimed in a 24-hour period since the start of the war. Hezbollah claimed that it launched drones and rockets targeting IDF sites in northern Israel, including the Kerem Ben Zimra Logistics Base and the IDF Meron Air Operations and Control Base.[91] Hezbollah also claimed that it conducted 20 rocket, mortar, drone, and anti-tank guided missile attacks targeting Israeli forces and positions in southern Lebanon.[92]
The rate of Hezbollah attacks targeting Israel has generally increased since the group joined the war on March 1, as illustrated below.
Hezbollah has sustained a high rate of drone attacks against Israeli targets since March 22. Hezbollah claimed 21 drone attacks between 3:00 PM ET on March 24 and 3:00 PM ET on March 25, which marks the highest number of drone attacks that Hezbollah has claimed in a 24-hour period since the group joined the war on March 1.[93] Hezbollah previously claimed 14 drone attacks on March 23.[94] An Israeli think tank previously noted that drones are increasingly becoming “a significant component of [Hezbollah’s] campaign.”[95] Hezbollah prioritized domestic drone production and shifted its munition rehabilitation budget to focus on drones after the Fall 2024 conflict.[96] Hezbollah has long assembled low-cost Ayoub and Mersad drones in Lebanon using civilian parts ordered online.[97] ISW-CTP previously forecasted in a February 28 report that Hezbollah would likely use low-cost weapons, such as drones, to conduct attacks against Israel.[98]
The IDF continued to conduct ground operations in southern Lebanon on March 25. The IDF reported that the 7th Armored Brigade (36th Armored Division) destroyed a weapons depot in southern Lebanon.[99] The IDF also reported that the 1st Golani Infantry Brigade (36th Armored Division) killed an armed Hezbollah fighter in southern Lebanon.[100] The IDF said on March 25 that the 401st Armored Brigade (91st Territorial Division) killed a group of Hezbollah fighters after the fighters fired an anti-tank guided missile targeting Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.[101] An Israeli journalist reported on March 25 that the “Egoz Unit” captured a Lebanese Resistance Brigades cell leader in Mount Dov, Lebanon.[102] The Lebanese Resistance Brigades is a Hezbollah-allied militia that has participated in Hezbollah attacks on Israeli forces.[103] The “Egoz Unit” is an elite commando unit that operates under the 89th Brigade (36th Armored Division).[104]
The IDF continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon on March 25. The IDF said that it struck a Hezbollah “command center” in Dahiyeh, Beirut City.[105] The IDF also said that it struck several Amana Fuel Company-owned gas stations in Lebanon on March 25. The IDF previously conducted a wave of airstrikes targeting Amana Fuel Company-owned gas stations across Lebanon on March 24.[106] The Amana Fuel Company is owned by Hezbollah, operates a network of gas stations in Lebanon, and manages Hezbollah’s fuel supplies.[107] The United States sanctioned the Amana Fuel Company in February 2020 for its role in supporting Hezbollah.[108]
The IDF issued new evacuation orders for several southern Lebanese villages on March 25. The IDF called on residents in these villages to move north of the Zahrani River.[109] The Zahrani River is further north than the Litani River and is located approximately 56 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border.[110]
Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem rejected negotiations with Israel in a statement on March 25.[111] He urged the Lebanese government to stop acting against Hezbollah, called for national unity, and described resistance as a “national responsibility.”[112] The Lebanese government has recently taken several actions against Hezbollah, including arresting eight Hezbollah operatives who were transporting rockets to southern Lebanon on March 24.[113]
Other Axis of Resistance Response
The US-Israeli combined force continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militia targets to degrade the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ ability to attack US interests and Israel. Iraqi media reported on March 25 that airstrikes targeted an intelligence headquarters located at an Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) base near al Habbaniya District, eastern Anbar Province.[114] Many Iranian-backed Iraqi militias control PMF brigades that answer to Iran instead of the Iraqi Prime Minister.[115] Combined force strikes targeting the same base on March 24 killed the Anbar Operations Commander and at least 13 other PMF members.[116] The Iraqi Ministerial Council for National Security announced in response to the attack on the PMF base in al Habbaniya District that the principle of self-defense applies to the PMF confronting “military aggressions” but did not provide further details.[117] Combined force strikes also targeted Kataib Hezbollah sites in al Qaim, Anbar Province, and sites associated with the 31st PMF Brigade in Baiji, Salah al Din Province.[118]
Airstrikes targeting an Iraqi Ministry of Defense (MoD) clinic and command site in al Habbaniya District, Anbar Province, on March 25 killed seven Iraqi soldiers and wounded 13 others.[119] A Kurdish journalist reported on March 25 that PMF members who were injured in the combined force strike on the PMF base in al Habbaniya on March 24 were transferred to the MoD site for medical assistance.[120] The Kurdish journalist added that the combined force campaign in Iraq has focused on killing commanders and “key military personnel” directly responsible for running Iranian-backed Iraqi militia units within the PMF.[121] A US State Department official separately told the New Arab on March 25 that the Iraqi federal government has not provided information to the United States about the location of Iraqi Security Forces units despite continuous US requests for this information to protect Iraqi soldiers.[122]
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front groups continue to claim attacks against US targets in Iraq and the Middle East. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba front group Kataib Sarqhat al Quds claimed on March 24 that it conducted a drone attack targeting US and Israeli interests in Jordan.[123] Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan issued a joint statement on March 25 condemning Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks targeting their countries.[124] Saraya Awliya al Dam, which is considered a front group for Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, responded to the statement and claimed that its attacks on these countries only target US assets.[125] Saraya Awliya al Dam claimed that its attacks on these countries will “intensify” due to US troop deployments to the Middle East and claimed that recent attacks targeting the PMF and MoD were launched from bases in the Gulf countries and Jordan.[126] Saraya Awliya al Dam separately claimed on March 24 that it targeted sites belonging to Iranian opposition groups in northern Iraq, where Israeli Mossad agents were reportedly present.[127]
