Iran

Anti-government demonstrations in nearly 200 Iranian cities continue to expand and intensify despite the increasing use of force by regime security forces. The failure of the security forces to quell the unrest indicates that the opposition is highly motivated and that security personnel might be hesitant to carry out orders …

Toplines The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime’s widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not …

Recent clashes between Damascus and the Kurdish forces in Aleppo highlight the risk that stalling integration talks may trigger broader violence. Since its signing on March 10, no tangible progress has been made on the eight-point agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Interim Government to facilitate …

The incident points to the myriad ways that U.S. adversaries might exploit Moscow’s efforts to claim a permanent stake in Syria’s needy postwar energy sector. This month, shipping data showed a U.S.-sanctioned oil tanker arriving in Syria with a load of Russian crude oil—hardly a surprise given that sanctioned vessels …

The possibility that its Iranian patron may be toppled is stoking Hezbollah’s existential fears, giving U.S. officials an opening to step up the pressure on Beirut, accelerate the disarmament process, and stave off looming Israeli escalation. On January 8, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Beirut with an economic …

As protests grow, regime leaders have no clear options for scaring Iranians off the streets, intimidating foreign powers, or escaping their wider strategic crisis. For all the military weapons remaining in the Iranian regime’s arsenal, it has finally been deprived of the one that authoritarians rely upon most: fear. For …

Countries across the region are assessing the fallout as the US moves to further isolate Iran’s economy US President Donald Trump on Monday announced new tariffs aimed at further isolating Iran’s already strained economy, as the country faces its largest wave of anti-government protests in years. Here is what we …

Dispatch from Tehran: With relative calm restored, state media is dominated by talk of ‘national resistance’ against foreign sedition Mosques burnt down to the ground, banks flattened, street signs removed, and roads scratched and destroyed by tyre fires. Walking through the streets of Tehran and other major cities, the scars …

Toplines The Iranian regime is using an unprecedented level of brutality to suppress protests. The actual death toll is likely significantly higher relative to the 1,500 people killed during the 2019 protests, though CTP-ISW cannot independently determine the number of protester deaths. Western media outlets have reported death toll estimates …

The ongoing protests in Iran mark the most serious domestic unrest that the Islamic Republic has faced. The protests could alter the character of the regime fundamentally or even topple it. CTP-ISW currently assesses that the unprecedentedly brutal crackdown that the regime is conducting has broadly suppressed protest activity and …