Iran

La situation actuelle d’escalade autour de l’Iran ne peut être comprise qu’en la lisant comme un conflit entre des zones d’influence clairement définies. Il ne s’agit ni, au principal, d’un processus de réforme interne en Iran ni d’une question «systémique» abstraite, mais de la confrontation entre les intérêts stratégiques de …

Key Takeaways Iranian Information Operation: Elements of the Iranian regime leaked information about purported plans to moderate regime behavior domestically and internationally. A former regime official close to Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani told an English-language diaspora outlet that Larijani is pushing to moderate regime policies and conduct …

Note: CTP-ISW has resumed publishing daily Iran Updates to cover the ongoing protests in Iran. CTP-ISW’s weekend updates will only include analysis on the protests, while our weekday updates will also include analysis on Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Key Takeaways The Iranian Regime’s Securitization: The regime’s plan to limit most …

Benjamin Netanyahu a appelé Donald Trump pour le presser de ne pas bombarder l’Iran car, selon certaines sources, Israël se sent vulnérable à une contre-attaque iranienne, écrit Joe Lauria. Israël craint que ses systèmes de défense aérienne, affaiblis par les Iraniens lors du conflit de douze jours en juin dernier, …

Anti-government demonstrations in nearly 200 Iranian cities continue to expand and intensify despite the increasing use of force by regime security forces. The failure of the security forces to quell the unrest indicates that the opposition is highly motivated and that security personnel might be hesitant to carry out orders …

Toplines The Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime’s widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not …

Recent clashes between Damascus and the Kurdish forces in Aleppo highlight the risk that stalling integration talks may trigger broader violence. Since its signing on March 10, no tangible progress has been made on the eight-point agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Interim Government to facilitate …

The incident points to the myriad ways that U.S. adversaries might exploit Moscow’s efforts to claim a permanent stake in Syria’s needy postwar energy sector. This month, shipping data showed a U.S.-sanctioned oil tanker arriving in Syria with a load of Russian crude oil—hardly a surprise given that sanctioned vessels …

The possibility that its Iranian patron may be toppled is stoking Hezbollah’s existential fears, giving U.S. officials an opening to step up the pressure on Beirut, accelerate the disarmament process, and stave off looming Israeli escalation. On January 8, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Beirut with an economic …

As protests grow, regime leaders have no clear options for scaring Iranians off the streets, intimidating foreign powers, or escaping their wider strategic crisis. For all the military weapons remaining in the Iranian regime’s arsenal, it has finally been deprived of the one that authoritarians rely upon most: fear. For …