Middle Orient

Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding that has not stopped the exchange of fire in the Gulf but has already produced a renewed and more aggressive repression campaign inside Iran. This crackdown can be understood as the regime’s response to Iranians who had begun to imagine what their …

The consensus among analysts is that Hamas is down, but hardly out. The group may be badly battered, but it has been around since 1987, and in that time, it has been repeatedly attacked by Israel and has always grown back. The conditions that gave rise to the organization—occupation, dispossession, …

Israel’s recent regional strategy has exposed significant limitations in achieving its long-term foreign policy objectives, illustrating the widening gap between military operations and strategic success. While Iran’s resilience and diplomatic positioning have accelerated the emergence of a more multipolar and diplomatically driven Middle Eastern security order. Carl von Clausewitz once …

The US continues to playact diplomacy with Iran regarding the latest “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) signed, then immediately violated by the US, renegotiated, and supposedly agreed upon again — using the pause in all-out war to carefully shape the battlefield ahead of what will inevitably be another round of large-scale …

Key Takeaways Iranian officials are simultaneously employing diplomatic outreach and military coercion to pressure regional states to support a new “regional security mechanism,” likely to advance Iran’s long-standing objective of expelling the United States from the Middle East. Iran is likely using this proposed regional security mechanism to encourage Gulf …

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This landmark document offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build real peace between Beirut and Jerusalem, but progress needs to be swift and visible given the threat of violent opposition from Iran and its local allies. After a rocky start to their fifth round of negotiations and a delay of several …

The current interim situation between peace and war suits Moscow quite well. On the one hand, continued instability in the Persian Gulf prevents oil prices from falling. On the other hand, the conflict is not escalating into a full-scale war that could threaten other Russian interests. The prospect of an …

The potential upsides of implementing the Trump administration’s poorly conceived idea are negligible at best, while the downsides would be legion, including further damage to Middle East stability and American interests. From the Gaza Riviera to the promised annexation of Greenland to the alienation of India, to neutrality in Ukraine—and …

No matter when and how the war in Ukraine ultimately ends, an aggressive Russia will remain a challenge for the United States and the broader West. In December 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said as much in his speech before the Munich Security Conference. “We are Russia’s next target,” …