Oleg Manaev, a Belarusian opposition figure now living in exile, says Russian intervention would lead to targeted repression aimed at preventing the emergence of a coordinated opposition, but also a further weakening of Lukashenko’s legitimacy and deepening splits in society.

Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbia is a revanchist regime trying to remake the balance of power in the Western Balkans. And for the moment, Vucic has a free hand to do as he pleases.

Both Poland and Hungary have found themselves embroiled in various diplomatic spats with Germany, while the Czechs stress democracy with an upcoming visit to Taiwan in the teeth of fierce Chinese opposition and more support for Belarusian demonstrators.