April, 2022

• 17 April

  Is MBS Looking for an Exit Ramp in Yemen?

  

  A ceasefire and a restructuring of the Yemen government suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) is looking for an off-ramp for the conflict. Houthi missile attacks on the Kingdom and the UAE, coupled with strains in U.S. relations with the two Gulf states, may have shifted MBS’ …

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• 17 April

  Spy Games: Russian Intelligence Personnel Expelled from Western Embassies

  

  In the wake of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have expelled hundreds of Russian diplomats to hinder Russian intelligence efforts. Most countries use some diplomatic postings for intelligence purposes, though the scale of Russia’s efforts is massive, and there will be significant consequences to having its personnel evicted …

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• 17 April

  A Le Pen Presidency Was Not a Possibility Before. It is Now.

  

  The far Right does not command a majority in France. But Macron’s arrogance and elitism, plus divisions on the Left, could hand it a victory. On the face of it, Sunday’s results look like a carbon copy of 2017. Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent president, came first with 28%, followed by …

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• 17 April

  The Blitzkrieg Failed. What’s Next?

  

  The special operation in Ukraine was conceived by Putin and his entourage as a way to turn the political situation around. The Kremlin strategists weren’t the least bit interested in the fate of the people in Lugansk and Donetsk, or even in the future of Ukraine. At a historical impasse, …

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• 17 April

  Stop the Geopolitical War Now

  

  In my view it is best to understand the Ukraine Crisis as a two-level war with regional and global implications. The surprising strength of Ukrainian resistance has dramatized the magnitude of Moscow’s miscalculation in having anticipating quickly subduing resisting to its aggression and intended occupation. Russia has already been defeated …

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• 17 April

  Ukraine War Puts New Focus on Conflict in Western Sahara

  

  Amid new tensions, can diplomacy unstick a long-stalled peace process with Morocco and Algeria? After years of stagnation in the conflict over the Western Sahara, the Russian war on Ukraine and other recent events could create openings to advance long-stalled Western Sahara peace efforts. Unprecedented parallel visits by America’s top …

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• 17 April

  What Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Means for African Governments

  

  While some see the chance to bolster the continent’s energy markets, others double-down on ties with Moscow. As Russia’s war in Ukraine advances into its second month, the conflict’s effects continue to ripple across the world. In Africa, the conflict is upending long-term trends across the continent and eliciting mixed …

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• 17 April

  Ukraine Crisis Prompts China to Swing Behind Myanmar’s Junta

  

  Outreach to pro-democracy forces appears over as Beijing expects the war in Ukraine to curb Russian backing for the generals. After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China this month dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. Beijing framed …

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• 17 April

  What’s Next for Pakistan’s Politics After Ouster of Imran Khan?

  

  The country’s political crisis may have abated, but the road ahead is littered with challenges for the next government. After a month of political crisis in Islamabad, Pakistan’s united opposition parties successfully removed Prime Minister Imran Khan in a vote of no confidence on April 10 and then on April …

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• 17 April

  China’s Ukraine Gambit: Beijing Plays Both Sides

  

  Its leaders clearly believe China’s contradictory stance offers it the best chance of protecting Chinese interests and finding opportunity in this crisis. Mao Zedong was fond of quoting a line from a Han Dynasty historian: “Things that oppose each other also complement each other.” Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China …

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