Recent Posts

Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis

The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning The Russian Ministry of Defense uses military forecasting to inform its long-term planning. Since the 1960s, Russian military analysis has applied comprehensive assessments of a country’s ability to wage war that go beyond weapons and formations. The Ministry of Defense uses …

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Why the UK Should Expand Its Bosnia Sanctions List

While Bosnian Serb separatism has been put on hold for now, there are other actors destabilising the country who should be added to the UK’s sanctions regime. On 11 April 2022, the UK imposed sanctions on Bosnian Serb politicians Milorad Dodik and Željka Cvijanović. The two separatist leaders were the …

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Beware Small Fires

As the world focuses on war in Ukraine, the risks and consequences of smaller conflicts should not be ignored. Western governments, security organisations, academics, think tanks and the media have in recent months understandably focused on the war in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine has radically altered the established security …

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Turkey Is Playing With Fire in Syria

While the war in Syria has receded from the international spotlight, residents in the country’s northeast are bracing for a new wave of armed conflict. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for months threatened to launch a military invasion of the region to push back Syrian Kurdish fighters and create …

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Erdogan’s Engagement Finds Willing Partners in Africa

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the Democratic Republic of Congo and Senegal this week, returning to the African continent just months after his most recent four-day, three-nation tour last October, as well as the Third Turkey-Africa Partnership Summit, which was held in December in Istanbul. The Turkish leader, who …

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