Eurasia Press & News
Key Takeaways
The structure of the newly established “deconfliction cell” to oversee the ceasefire in Lebanon appears to constrain Israeli action against Hezbollah by eliminating the post-2024 ceasefire monitoring mechanism, which allowed Israel to act against Hezbollah ceasefire violations in certain circumstances. Both Iran and Hezbollah could materially benefit from a constrained Israeli ability to confront Hezbollah.
Iran has secured economic relief through a US Treasury Department sanctions waiver for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports and a reported Iran-Qatar memorandum of understanding that facilitates the unfreezing of Iranian assets.
Iran does not appear to have made any nuclear concessions in the June 21 talks in Switzerland. An Iranian official reiterated that the United States must fulfill other MoU clauses, such as the ceasefire on all fronts and economic relief clauses, in order to “pave the way for the implementation of mutual obligations.” The official’s comments are consistent with how Iran is attempting to condition nuclear talks on economic relief and the United States compelling Israel to end operations and withdraw from Lebanon.
The US and Iranian delegations agreed on June 21 to establish a line of communication to prevent military incidents in the Strait of Hormuz as commercial vessels transit through the strait. IRGC-affiliated media claimed on June 21 that this line of communication — which appears to be designed mainly to avoid maritime incidents or miscommunication — establishes Iran’s sovereignty over the strait.Toplines
The structure of the newly established “deconfliction cell” to oversee the ceasefire in Lebanon appears to constrain Israeli action against Hezbollah by eliminating the post-2024 ceasefire monitoring mechanism, which allowed Israel to act against Hezbollah ceasefire violations in certain circumstances. Iran secured a number of gains from the quadrilateral talks with the United States, Qatar, and Pakistan in Switzerland on June 21. One of these gains includes the establishment of a “deconfliction cell” to oversee the ceasefire in Lebanon that excludes Israel and appears to replace a previous monitoring mechanism that enabled Israeli operations in Lebanon under the November 2024 ceasefire.[1] The new mechanism includes the United States, Iran, Qatar, the Lebanese government, and Pakistan. The previous mechanism, often referred to as the “ceasefire monitoring committee,” enabled Israel to conduct operations against Hezbollah and degrade the threat Hezbollah posed to Israel following Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah in 2024.[2] This mechanism included Israel, Lebanon, the United States, France, and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).[3] Israel, under this mechanism, reported Hezbollah ceasefire violations to the mechanism in order for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to address the violations.[4] Israel took action to neutralize the Hezbollah threats with force when the LAF failed to address or insufficiently addressed the Hezbollah violations, which frequently occurred.[5] Israeli media reported that the newly agreed-upon mechanism between the United States, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan is designed to replace the former ceasefire monitoring committee. It is unclear how the newly established deconfliction cell will function. The disempowerment of the former mechanism in favor of a new “deconfliction cell” that excludes Israel nonetheless benefits Iran because it removes a recognized forum in which Israel raised Hezbollah violations and acted against them if necessary. Both Iran and Hezbollah could materially benefit from a constrained Israeli ability to confront Hezbollah.
The inclusion of Iran and exclusion of Israel in the “deconfliction cell” will seriously challenge the cell’s ability to achieve its stated objective of ensuring the “termination of military operations” in Lebanon.[6] Both actors are actively involved in combat operations in southern Lebanon. Iran reportedly deployed Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers to Maroun al Ras to help coordinate Hezbollah’s defense against Israel Defense Forces (IDF) advances in southern Lebanon, according to a senior Israeli source speaking to regional media on June 22.[7] These IRGC deployments are consistent with recent reports that IRGC officers have embedded themselves in Hezbollah’s command structure in order to rebuild the group following Hezbollah’s defeat in Fall 2024.[8] The IDF continues to operate against Hezbollah on the ground in southeastern Lebanon.[9] Iran’s involvement in the conflict will enable it to directly relay intelligence and information from southern Lebanon to the “deconfliction cell.” Israel will only be able to indirectly relay information to the “deconfliction cell” via the United States, however. Israel was previously able to directly raise issues to the November 2024 monitoring mechanism.[10]
The conflicting positions of the deconfliction cell’s member states will also challenge the mechanism’s ability to secure an end to military operations in Lebanon. The United States is reportedly allowing Israel to maintain a military presence in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli media citing Israeli sources. Right-wing Israeli media reported on June 22 that Israeli and US officials have agreed that the IDF will remain in southern Lebanon for an unspecified period of time to continue clearing Hezbollah infrastructure in areas within the IDF’s military buffer zone.[11] Left-leaning Israeli media reports indicated on June 21 that the IDF is considering “a symbolic withdrawal” from areas of southern Lebanon beyond the Yellow Line — which refers to the extent of the IDF’s “security zone” in Lebanon—as a gesture to the Lebanese government.[12] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz continue to insist that Israel has the right to protect itself and that this includes maintaining a presence in southern Lebanon to combat Hezbollah and conduct clearing operations.[13] Iran continues to demand a full ceasefire that includes a complete IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon, however.[14] Israeli, US, and Lebanese delegations will probablydiscuss the scope of Israeli military operations in Lebanon and the new “deconfliction cell” in Israel-Lebanon ceasefire talks in Washington, DC, between June 23 and 25.[15]
Iran has also secured economic relief through a US Treasury Department sanctions waiver for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports and a reported Iran-Qatar memorandum of understanding (MoU) that facilitates the unfreezing of Iranian assets. The US Treasury Department issued a waiver on June 22 for Iranian crude oil and petrochemical exports through August 21. The waiver includes associated services such as banking transactions, insurance, and transportation. The waiver does not apply to Iranian exports to North Korea, Cuba, and Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.[16] The United States had already committed to the sanctions waiver as part of the US-Iran MoU that the United States and Iran signed on June 17.[17] Iranian media separately reported that Iran and Qatar signed a separate MoU for Qatar to unfreeze Iranian assets.[18] Qatar has not acknowledged this claim as of this writing. US Vice President JD Vance told reporters on June 22 that Iran would use unfrozen funds to purchase US agricultural products if the United States unfroze the funds.[19] Iranian media subsequently denied Vance’s comments, however.[20]
Iran does not appear to have made any nuclear concessions in the June 21 talks in Switzerland. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters on June 22 that both the US and Iranian delegations expressed their countries’ views on Iran’s nuclear program but did not negotiate on their positions during the June 21 talks.[21] Baghaei reiterated that the United States must fulfill other MoU clauses, such as the ceasefire on all fronts and economic relief clauses, in order to “pave the way for the implementation of mutual obligations.” Baghaei was likely referencing negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program, which is consistent with how Iran is attempting to condition nuclear talks on economic relief and the United States compelling Israel to end operations and withdraw from Lebanon.[22] US President Donald Trump suggested on June 22 that Iran will have to agree to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of nuclear sites.[23] Baghaei denied that Iran has made any “new commitments” over IAEA inspections and said that Iran’s interactions with the IAEA would remain under Iran’s existing legal frameworks, however.[24]
The US and Iranian delegations agreed on June 21 to establish a line of communication to prevent military incidents in the Strait of Hormuz as commercial vessels transit through the strait.[25] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media claimed on June 21 that this line of communication — which appears to be designed mainly to avoid maritime incidents or miscommunication — establishes Iran’s sovereignty over the strait.[26] The regime may assess that this line of communication will require vessels to coordinate with Iran in order to safely pass through the strait and thereby implicitly recognize Iran’s sovereignty over the strait. Commercially available maritime data indicates that 25 vessels passed through the strait between 1400 ET on June 21 and 1400 ET on June 22, despite Iranian claims on June 20 that it had closed the strait due to Israeli “violations” of the ceasefire in Lebanon.[27]
US-Iran Negotiations
See topline section.
Maritime Activity in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf
See topline section.
US and Israeli Air Campaign
Nothing significant to report.
Iranian Domestic Affairs
Nothing significant to report.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Lebanese Hezbollah and the Israeli Campaign in Lebanon
See topline section.
Other Axis of Resistance Activity
Nothing significant to report.
