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What If Russia Loses?

A Defeat for Moscow Won’t Be a Clear Victory for the West Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic blunder by invading Ukraine. He has misjudged the political tenor of the country, which was not waiting to be liberated by Russian soldiers. He has misjudged the United States, the …

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The New Face of War: Devastating Drone Attacks in Ukraine Have Implications for the US Military in the Middle East

In dramatic video coverage currently going viral on YouTube and TikTok, Ukrainian drones are seen to destroy a Russian convoy, with startling speed — and total impunity. The story of how destructive such drone attacks are proving to be was picked up by several U.S. papers, and brought to light …

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Neither East nor West: Turkey’s calculations in the Ukraine crisis

The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy …

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How will the war in Ukraine affect Gulf oil producers?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine provides certain opportunities for the Gulf oil industry, and these are not as trivial as they may seem at first. Indeed, in late February 2022, the demand for Saudi and Emirati oil increased substantially as they can provide an alternative to Russian supplies in both …

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Is the Middle East next on Putin’s agenda? What the US can do to prepare

Conventional wisdom has it that the conflict in Ukraine will lead the United States to bolster its military presence along NATO’s boundary in Eastern Europe, with a concomitant downscaling in the Middle East. While presenting a robust front in support of NATO is of course critical, it would be a …

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Nationalist and Imperial Thinking Define Putin’s Vision for Russia

Putin has been seen as rational and realist in his foreign and security policy, calculating and often opportunistic. His decision to mount a full-scale military assault on Ukraine, however, highlights a shift by Russia’s president to embrace ethno-nationalist motivations, driven by a sense of a historic mission to rectify perceived …

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China’s Soft Shoe on Ukraine

Hard geopolitics dominates China’s view of Russian action in Ukraine. In the West, China’s views on Ukraine have largely been seen through the lenses that people want to interpret China’s actions. Some fear Beijing will use the opportunity to do something in Taiwan, while others instead suggest that this will …

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‘Built for this mission’: Most of V Corps’ HQ shifts from US to Europe in response to Russia

The U.S. Army’s V Corps will deploy the bulk of its headquarters to Europe to enhance command and control of ground forces as troops continue to deploy to the Continent in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. About 300 additional soldiers out of Fort Knox, Ky., are headed to …

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US paratroopers in Poland largely hidden from view amid mission prompted by war in Ukraine

Curious Poles continue to stop for a peek at the sprawling airfield here that serves as the main staging area for the 82nd Airborne’s new mission in Poland. But for the most part, soldiers remain out of sight. And one month into the campaign, that’s just the way the U.S. …

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NATO nixes no-fly zone over Ukraine to avoid a larger war

NATO on Friday ruled out setting up a no-fly zone in Ukraine amid concerns of sparking a wider war with Russia, but will consider sharply increasing the number of allied troops deployed to central and Eastern Europe, the alliance’s top official said. As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its second …

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