April, 2026

• 20 April

  The Collapse is Real – Lebanon Ceasefire Marks a Historic Strategic Defeat

  

  A ceasefire in Lebanon was announced on Thursday by US President Donald Trump, but its reality tells a very different story. The ceasefire was not the product of American diplomacy, nor Israeli strategic calculation. It was imposed—largely as a result of sustained Iranian pressure. Washington, Tel Aviv, and their allies—including …

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• 20 April

  Four scenarios for geopolitics after the Iran war

  

  After more than a month of war and amid an uneasy cease-fire, Iran announced Friday that it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for ships traveling a pre-approved route, while President Donald Trump vowed to continue a US blockade on Iranian ships. Both sides are still negotiating a deal to …

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• 20 April

  The Strait of Hormuz is ‘open,’ but the US blockade remains in place. Here’s what that means.

  

  On Friday morning, Iran announced that it had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for supplying the world with oil, liquefied natural gas, and other commodities from the Gulf, resulting in an immediate drop in the price of oil. US President Donald Trump declared his support …

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• 17 April

  Why Bosnia Feels Helpless But Not Hopeless

  

  A regularly heard concern is the profound demographic crisis. Many young people and their families have left, likely never to return. The population is rapidly aging. Whilst diaspora ties bring new hope and possibility, they cannot substitute for those living and breathing Bosnia and Herzegovina daily. Though some speak encouragingly …

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• 17 April

  Turkey Expands Influence in Africa: Africa File, April 16, 2026

  

  Key Takeaway: Turkey. Turkey has recently advanced economic and security ties with Niger and Somalia, viewing both countries as its African anchor states through which it can further its strategic interests in Africa. These partnerships aim to address several domestic concerns, such as patronage and energy security, and bolster Turkey’s …

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• 17 April

  Moving from War to Diplomacy: What’s Next for Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza?

  

  Amid major diplomatic milestones and major international security threats, three experts explore what it will take to achieve success on multiple negotiating tracks at once. On April 15, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Ambassador Michael Herzog, Robert Satloff, and Hanin Ghaddar. Herzog is the Institute’s Tisch …

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• 17 April

  Egypt’s Discrete Role in the Ceasefire with Iran

  

  Cairo’s efforts send a message to the United States and the region that it still has a place at the diplomatic table. Egypt has been on the sidelines as a mediator in Middle Eastern negotiations for much of the past decade, but its quiet role in facilitating the current ceasefire …

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• 17 April

  Three Scenarios for the Gulf States After the Iran War

  

  Amid a tenuous U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Arab Gulf monarchies are aiming to project strength. “We prevailed through an epic national defense . . . in the face of treacherous aggression,” Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash wrote on X. Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat emphasized the kingdom’s “intensive political consultations” with regional countries …

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• 17 April

  Iran Update Special Report, April 16, 2026

  

  Key Takeaways The main sticking point in current US-Iran negotiations is reportedly Iran’s enrichment of uranium and its highly enriched uranium stockpile. The IRGC appears to be playing an outsized role in Iranian decision-making in these negotiations, traditionally meant for civilian leadership. Iran appears to have not compromised on its …

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• 17 April

  How Likely Is It That Russia Attacks The Foreign Companies Supplying Ukraine With Drones?

  

  Typically cautious Putin isn’t going to risk World War III over foreign drone companies when he wouldn’t risk it after Ukraine attacked his country’s nuclear triad with Western support last summer. Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warned on X that “Russian Defense …

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