Recent Posts

What If Russia Loses?

A Defeat for Moscow Won’t Be a Clear Victory for the West Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic blunder by invading Ukraine. He has misjudged the political tenor of the country, which was not waiting to be liberated by Russian soldiers. He has misjudged the United States, the …

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How will the war in Ukraine affect Gulf oil producers?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine provides certain opportunities for the Gulf oil industry, and these are not as trivial as they may seem at first. Indeed, in late February 2022, the demand for Saudi and Emirati oil increased substantially as they can provide an alternative to Russian supplies in both …

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Nationalist and Imperial Thinking Define Putin’s Vision for Russia

Putin has been seen as rational and realist in his foreign and security policy, calculating and often opportunistic. His decision to mount a full-scale military assault on Ukraine, however, highlights a shift by Russia’s president to embrace ethno-nationalist motivations, driven by a sense of a historic mission to rectify perceived …

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China’s Soft Shoe on Ukraine

Hard geopolitics dominates China’s view of Russian action in Ukraine. In the West, China’s views on Ukraine have largely been seen through the lenses that people want to interpret China’s actions. Some fear Beijing will use the opportunity to do something in Taiwan, while others instead suggest that this will …

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NATO nixes no-fly zone over Ukraine to avoid a larger war

NATO on Friday ruled out setting up a no-fly zone in Ukraine amid concerns of sparking a wider war with Russia, but will consider sharply increasing the number of allied troops deployed to central and Eastern Europe, the alliance’s top official said. As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its second …

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