Strategic Transformations in Israel and their Regional Implications

Israel is witnessing a period of profound political and security transformations as a result of the overlapping of elections with the repercussions of the ongoing wars and the redefinition of the concept of security, in light of the decline in international support and the escalation of challenges in Gaza, the West Bank, Iran and other regional arenas. The stage revolves around the conflict on the limits of power and the transformation of military achievements into strategic gains, while the upcoming elections reveal internal divisions on the recruitment of the ultra-Orthodox, the future of the right, the post-Netanyahu era, the relationship with Washington, and the future of the Palestinian cause, amid a regional environment characterized by anticipation and indecisiveness.

Introduction

This paper deals with the political and security transformations that Israel is going through at a stage when the electoral entitlement overlaps with the repercussions of the protracted wars, the reformulation of the strategic vision of the state, the decline in the support of international public opinion towards it, the escalation of challenges related to the files of the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Iran, as well as developments in Syria, unrest in the Red Sea and developments in the Saudi-Pakistan relationship. As well as the growing threats in cyberspace and low-lying airspace.

The paper assumes that the essence of the stage is not Israel’s transition from war to post-war, but rather its transition from the logic of crisis management to internal and external conflict over the concept of security, limits of force, and the conditions for transforming tactical military achievements into permanent strategic gains.

The paper concludes that the upcoming elections will act as a magnifying glass for all Israeli contradictions: the crisis of the Haredim recruitment, the violence of the settlers, the future of religious right-wing currents, the possible rise of political alternatives such as Gadi Eisenkot, the post-Netanyahunia phase within the Likud, the volatile relationship with Washington, the limits of the ability to impose arrangements on the Palestinians or the region and the path towards the two-state solution and Israeli legitimacy. It also concludes that the regional environment does not move quickly towards a resolution, but tends to conservative anticipation.

Background and General Context

Israel is moving in a strategic environment characterized by a rise in uncertainty. The upcoming elections are not an internal factor separate from regional interactions, but a central variable that will affect the order of security and political priorities, escalation and de-escalation decisions, and the management of the relationship with the United States and Arab countries. Therefore, any assessment of the Israeli strategic trajectory should take into account the political map that the elections will produce, the nature of the next coalition government, and the limits of its ability to make long-term decisions.

In this context, the concept of the “day after war” is no longer a precise one; there is no clear resolution on the end of the war or the definition of any war that means: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, or other overlapping or supporting fronts. Therefore, this paper deals with the current stage as an extended transitional phase, characterized by the overlapping of the military track in the political, internal, regional and diplomatic security tracks.
The central idea

The central idea of the paper is how to read the ongoing transformations in Israel, internally and regionally, and to draw practical policy paths in light of the approaching elections, the absence of a clear Israeli strategic vision, and the escalation of security challenges, legitimacy, and regional relations. The paper seeks to answer a key question: What are the options for Arab and international actors to deal with Israel in an open transition, while minimizing the risk of escalation and maximizing the chances of pushing for more stable arrangements?
Strategic analysis

1. Elections as a dominant factor in Israeli decision-making

The upcoming elections appear to be a candidate to be the most prominent determinant of Israeli government behavior in the near term. Considerations related to the survival of the coalition, the balances of the parties, and the results of opinion polls will affect the Israeli government’s way of managing the escalation and truce files. On this basis, the upcoming Israeli decisions should be read as the result of an interaction between actual security assessments and internal political calculations.

2. The Palestinian issue as a strategic center of gravity

The data confirms that the Palestinian issue has returned to its position as a structural strategic challenge for Israel, after years of attempts to resolve or overcome it. This means that any regional breakthrough, including normalization with Saudi Arabia or building multilateral security and economic arrangements, will remain limited in impact unless it is linked to a credible political path toward the future of the Palestinians. From a political perspective, ignoring the Palestinian file is no longer a low-cost option, but a source of restraint for Israel to maneuver in the international community and its ability to build sustainable regional partnerships.

3. West Bank and settler violence

Indicators do not indicate a large-scale escalation in the West Bank that goes beyond normal security patterns, but they illustrate the more flammable arena as a result of geographic and demographic overlap and the absence of clear boundaries. Settler violence is a multiplier of risks, because it imposes additional burdens on the Israeli security establishment, harms Israel’s image internationally, and may turn into an electoral issue that deepens internal polarization and increases the fragility of the security landscape.

4. Gaza and the Twenty Point Plan

The Gaza Strip continues as the most linked arena to U.S. pressure and Israeli election calculations. The prevailing framework remains President Trump’s twenty-point plan, and the challenge is not so much in the multiplicity of mediation channels as in the rigidity of the American channel and in Israel’s willingness to engage in additional stages of implementation. Therefore, Gaza will remain a central test of Israel’s ability to move from managing the war to building a viable political and security arrangement.

5. Iran and the disintegration of the strategy of unity of the squares

The “unity of the squares” strategy has been retreated militarily, but it has not completely disintegrated, especially in light of the continued Iranian threat and the possibility of new patterns of regional coordination, including the possibility of a different Turkish role. The U.S. relationship with Iran will also directly affect Israel’s margin of maneuver, and any U.S.-Iranian negotiating track could lead to a reordering of Israel’s priorities and regional behavior.

6. Arab Relations and Normalization with Saudi Arabia

The chances of Saudi-Israeli normalization do not seem ripe in the near term unless there are appropriate and clear conditions, foremost of which is a reliable path towards the Palestinians and guarantees related to the civilian nuclear program and the relationship with the United States. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see normalization as a decisive electoral achievement, Saudi Arabia seems more inclined to avoid interfering in Israeli elections and linking any progress to its long-term terms and interests.

7. Economy, Aviation, Red Sea and Defense Industries

Israel’s economy has been relatively adapted to the disruption of shipping routes in the Red Sea, and the Houthis’ priority shifts and Saudi-related escalation prospects appear to be low. However, the suspension of flights and the decline in tourism directly harm the Israeli economy and the economies of neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt. At the same time, Israel is benefiting from a multiplicity of global crises by expanding freedom of movement and maximizing the gains of the defense industry, making the security economy part of the power equation rather than just the outcome of the war.

8. Technology, drones, cybersecurity and the electoral process

The incident of drones and growing threats in low-lying airspace shows that Israel is facing a new generation of cheap and rapidly evolving threats, forcing a redefinition of internal security and the protection of personalities and facilities. In parallel, there are internal and external attempts to influence the integrity of the election, including limited but existing Iranian cyber threats. Although Israel has advanced intelligence and cyber capabilities, the breadth of threats makes electoral and cybersecurity an integral part of the next strategic assessment.

9. Domestic Policy: Recruitment, Religious Right, Post-Netanyahu

Israeli foreign policy is inseparable from internal polarization over the identity of the state. The issue of the recruitment of the ultra-Orthodox turns from a right-wing and left-wing dispute to a line of division between the ultra-Orthodox parties and most of the political system. The Supreme Court’s decision to arrest evaders also reflects a deeper conflict over the judiciary, legitimacy and institutions. On the other hand, the religious Zionist Party seems to stick to its line despite its declining electoral opportunities, while the issue of settler violence turns into an electoral issue invested by political rivals. Inside Likud, the crisis strengthens Netanyahu’s position in the short term, but in the long run it opens the question of the succession and the post-caliphate.

10. Syria, Pakistan and the wider regional theater shifts

Israel seems relatively comfortable with the status quo in Syria, where threats are limited and the required investment is low, and efforts to reintegrate Syria internationally are often assessed in its relevance and consistency with Israeli interests. As a nuclear state, Pakistan, according to identical sources whose name has been reserved, is engaged in a secret dialogue with Israel, adding a new layer of complexity to the regional equation; Israel monitors this engagement from behind the American umbrella and assesses its repercussions. This means that the regional theater is no longer confined to conventional fronts, but expands on nuclear actors and undeclared diplomatic paths.

Possible scenarios
Scenario I: The continuation of the gray situation

Description of the scenario: The escalation continues at relatively limited and disciplined levels in most arenas, with tension in Gaza, the West Bank and the Iranian file remaining unrevolved into a broad regional confrontation.

The weighting point: high in the near term, given the desire of most parties to manage the risks without paying the cost of an all-out war before the results of the Israeli elections are clear.

Political significance: This scenario requires the adoption of a follow-up approach and the readiness for a rapid shift in priorities.
The second scenario: a calculated electoral escalation

• Description of the scenario: The Israeli government may turn to limited security or military operations if it deems that this strengthens its electoral position or rearranges the internal agenda.
• Weighting: Medium, with a rise in the event of deterioration of opinion polls or escalation of coalition pressure.

Risks: The main risk is that the calculated escalation will turn into an out-of-control path due to the multiplicity of arenas and the intertwining of the actors.
The third scenario: a conditional political breakthrough

This path is achieved if an Israeli government is formed that is better able to adopt a strategic vision and engages seriously in a U.S.-regional framework that links Gaza, the West Bank, and Saudi normalization within a broader political package.

The weighting point: moderate to low before the elections, and rises only if the elections produce a coalition capable of overcoming the pressures of extremist forces.

Political significance: This scenario opens a limited window for building more sustainable regional arrangements.
Scenario Four: Multi-Square Deterioration

Description of the scenario: This path includes the outbreak of waves of violence in the West Bank, the faltering of the Gaza track, or an escalation with Iran or one of its associated actors, in parallel with increasing international and economic pressures.

• Weighting: Less weighted than the scenario of the continuation of the gray situation, but the highest cost.
• Implications: It may be directly reflected on neighboring countries, commercial corridors, the aviation and tourism sectors, and the level of regional political polarization.
  Early warning indicators

1- The opinion polls are turning in favor or against Netanyahu in a way that pushes the government to a disciplined escalation or a calculated calm.

2- The growth of an electoral discourse linking national security to a return to war or the expansion of operations in Gaza and the West Bank.

3. The increase in the frequency or transformation of settler violence into a central issue in electoral campaigns.

4- The implementation of the 20-point plan has stalled or Israel has refused to move to additional stages in Gaza.

5. Growing suspension of flights or expanding restrictions on airspace and tourism.

6 – The emergence of attacks or threats of drones in the low airspace near sensitive figures or facilities.

7- The escalation of indicators of external or internal cyber interference in the electoral process.

8- A further deterioration in international public opinion towards Israel, especially in post-Trump political environments.

9. American references to Israel being seen as an obstacle to understanding with Iran or broader regional arrangements.

Finally, the data reflect a complex Israeli image: a military and intelligence force that has an effective impact, but faces a vision crisis, electoral pressure, a decline in its international support rates, as well as the return of the Palestinian cause as an insurmountable factor. Therefore, the most effective policy towards the next stage is a policy that combines strategic caution, conditional engagement, and preparation for multiple scenarios, while refusing to reduce the ongoing transformations in a single military or electoral moment.