January 15, 2026 Eurasia
“If a regime can only cling to power through violence, then it’s effectively over anyway,” Merz said. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he believes the Iranian regime is in its final days during a press conference in Bangalore, India, on Tuesday. “If a regime can only cling to power through …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Middle Orient, Turkey
A renewal of relations between France and Turkey is vital to strengthen European strategic autonomy. To make this détente a reality, Paris and Ankara should move beyond personal friction and jointly engage with questions of Black Sea security. Europe’s push for greater strategic cohesion and autonomy in an uncertain world …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Iran, Middle Orient
Years ago, I was negotiating with Iranian officials for the release of American hostages held in Tehran. The talks were not going well. At one point, my Iranian counterpart asked why Iran should ever make a deal with a country that constantly changes its government — in other words, a …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Iran, Middle Orient
The Iranian regime appears to be at its weakest point in its nearly half century in power. For the past two weeks, Iranians throughout the country have taken to the streets in protest over Iran’s deepening economic crises, stirring up memories of the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022-2023 and the …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Iran, Middle Orient
Unlike any other time in modern history, a US president is encouraging protestors in a foreign country to “take over the institutions” in Iran, saying that “help is on its way”—potentially with the backing and support of Israel—while offering no clear policy toward either the fate of the country’s theocratic …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Middle Orient
Hundreds of displaced families are returning to—and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters are withdrawing from—the city of Aleppo in northern Syria, after a US-mediated cease-fire there ended a week of violent clashes with government forces. Damascus has now taken control of the city, after a week that highlighted foundational …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Iran, Middle Orient
Since December 28, protests have erupted across all thirty-one of Iran’s provinces, as the Iranian people have once again demonstrated their courage and desire for change from the regime. The demonstrations were initially sparked by currency devaluation and economic hardship, but quickly morphed into a broader cause calling for systemic …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia
Toplines Russian advances slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026, likely due to less advantageous winter weather conditions and the end of efforts to meet arbitrary deadlines at the end of the year. ISW observed evidence indicating that Russian forces increased their presence (either through infiltration missions or …
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January 15, 2026 Eurasia, Iran, Middle Orient
Toplines The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. The regime will likely succeed in quelling …
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January 14, 2026 Eurasia, Iran, Middle Orient
La ruse favorite des partisans d’un changement de régime est de faire croire que la population du pays ciblé forme un bloc idéologique monolithique. Tous les Iraniens détestent leur gouvernement, tous les Vénézuéliens voulaient se libérer de Maduro, etc. Ils utilisent constamment cette tactique. Le problème, c’est que cela les …
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